Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Republicans have between 225 and 229 seats in House after election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0681e64050471f45ffc85487e89e1430d9fcca307601301aa7f00fd1fbf095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3513…33f6backed Yes | 7c | 21,201$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 19,999$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.91 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 2c | 13,128$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.47 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…a363backed Yes | 8c | 6,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 8c | 6,215$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 8c | 6,165$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.82 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 5,009$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,471$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 2c | 2,107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,946$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904a…6232backed Yes | 9c | 1,788$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8475…fc3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,560$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…2f33backed Yes | 13c | 1,436$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes | 4c | 1,306$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…a0d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 10c | 1,017$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…a313backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…0166backed Yes | 9c | 853.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…ae0dbacked Yes | 7c | 701.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…0a67backed Yes | 3c | 500.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 8c | 322.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…7abdbacked Yes | 9c | 318.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…4774backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…5866backed Yes | 4c | 297.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 4c | 259.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 224.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…c75ebacked Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…e91abacked Yes | 7c | 154.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…4926backed Yes | 8c | 144.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…b113backed Yes | 20c | 73.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 72c | 56.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republicans have between 225 and 229 seats in House after election?this page
- Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 200 and 204 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 205 and 209 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 210 and 214 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 215 and 219 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?Yes won
- Will Republicans have fewer than 200 seats in House after election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.