TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,208,030
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,285,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,208,030 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xffea…62fcbacked Yes0c536,530$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes0c126,672$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.67130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes1c83,018$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.2312129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93e5…3a20backed Yes0c66,970$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x669a…cb93backed Yes0c65,670$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6833backed Yes0c64,680$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f17…1c37backed Yes0c64,470$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e3…08f2backed Yes0c64,220$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b9…26b5backed Yes0c64,040$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc989…4d21backed Yes0c63,160$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156a…c9e0backed Yes0c63,020$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c6c…2548backed Yes0c62,990$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4090…d882backed Yes0c62,940$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb79…5eb5backed Yes0c62,450$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49a…178fbacked Yes0c62,180$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb515…57b2backed Yes0c62,180$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c7…b476backed Yes0c62,170$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ac…21b2backed Yes0c60,640$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a7…8f62backed Yes0c60,590$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x953b…ea45backed Yes0c59,400$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9455…edcdbacked Yes0c59,390$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa8…6435backed Yes0c59,140$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a0…d51ebacked Yes0c59,130$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c15…677abacked Yes0c58,910$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5350…a942backed Yes0c58,730$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…c0acbacked Yes0c58,730$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…8614backed Yes0c58,350$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a9…76a8backed Yes0c57,850$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016c…8479backed Yes0c57,700$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50da…eafbbacked Yes0c57,650$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98aa…c995backed Yes0c57,610$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97dd…ccb7backed Yes0c57,050$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…f97dbacked Yes0c55,890$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa413…c865backed Yes0c55,860$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c64…161cbacked Yes0c55,480$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…c93dbacked Yes0c55,370$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6747…b894backed Yes0c55,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c1…0f3cbacked Yes0c55,180$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d4…ef10backed Yes0c54,940$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9687…355cbacked Yes0c54,890$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b8…df58backed Yes0c54,740$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…52fdbacked Yes0c54,510$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb997…0d40backed Yes0c54,240$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4928…14cdbacked Yes0c54,100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c8…504cbacked Yes0c53,990$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffa…e155backed Yes0c53,960$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f5…7c17backed Yes0c53,470$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ec…ae55backed Yes0c52,920$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb69c…50fbbacked Yes0c52,750$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f7…04cfbacked Yes0c52,350$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f30…1ee2backed Yes0c52,200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x377c…93ccbacked Yes0c51,880$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e6…a5febacked Yes0c49,720$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe225…54aebacked Yes0c49,660$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefc…2958backed Yes0c48,470$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2575…4420backed Yes0c48,120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…c5c5backed Yes0c48,110$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe12a…7407backed Yes0c48,090$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c2…9949backed Yes0c48,060$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c2…efe5backed Yes0c47,790$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6954…2a54backed Yes0c47,310$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a8…daffbacked Yes0c46,020$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde90…3d47backed Yes0c45,720$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe612…213ebacked Yes0c45,290$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee7f…99d3backed Yes0c45,060$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf68…cf61backed Yes0c44,820$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…fb8cbacked Yes0c44,600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eed…4e6fbacked Yes0c44,140$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2268…69bcbacked Yes0c42,130$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c83…47dabacked Yes0c41,960$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee54…165abacked Yes0c41,850$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f7…ea4cbacked Yes0c40,770$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fc…ee28backed Yes0c40,700$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…5b7cbacked Yes0c40,650$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed0c…0b5fbacked Yes0c40,600$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c5…bf78backed Yes0c39,840$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f97…f5adbacked Yes0c39,421$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x233b…aadbbacked Yes0c38,800$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1982…c3e5backed Yes0c38,600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d2…1ae6backed Yes0c37,430$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7934…822fbacked Yes0c36,790$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…5448backed Yes0c36,140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…1a7ebacked Yes0c35,880$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b37…f0c0backed Yes0c35,590$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74a…171cbacked Yes0c35,040$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4067…3e1bbacked Yes0c34,950$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbed…0d9bbacked Yes0c34,840$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea4…5705backed Yes0c34,570$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b78…50f2backed Yes0c34,480$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb25d…c952backed Yes0c34,420$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8338…2ea3backed Yes0c34,320$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed0…2202backed Yes0c34,310$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf6…5525backed Yes0c33,860$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d75…e0c4backed Yes0c33,780$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f17…af1dbacked Yes0c33,780$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7163…fa3ebacked Yes0c33,760$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d12…5e0cbacked Yes0c33,390$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6771…0162backed Yes0c33,350$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421c…07aebacked Yes0c33,310$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e6…2488backed Yes0c33,250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.