Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef61cec575ac7260343e1f0c11900fee12a1f30b521b649eec7663ec5424242a

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $658,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $120,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $658,494 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes	0c	72,998$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	13	0%0 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf940…7736backed Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	25,994$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28e1…b5adbacked Yes	0c	25,600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes	1c	24,453$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.08	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed Yes	0c	24,050$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	22,873$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.84	169	1.8%3 W · 166 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	0c	20,346$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.2	103	31.1%32 W · 71 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes	0c	18,247$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	58	3.4%2 W · 56 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ab…96c2backed Yes	1c	17,244$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933a…a660backed Yes	1c	14,799$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	13,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	89	2.2%2 W · 87 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed Yes	1c	12,778$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.36	57	21.1%12 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	12,665$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	41	0%0 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed Yes	1c	11,604$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.54	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	10cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b1d…04dcbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes	1c	9,966$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.51	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	9,276$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.53	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb37b…a2d9backed Yes	1c	8,025$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes	0c	7,308$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	1c	5,124$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	79	19%15 W · 64 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3bc2backed Yes	1c	3,844$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	3,309$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	3,271$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	166	4.2%7 W · 159 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes	0c	3,253$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,040$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	234	4.3%10 W · 224 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c9…3e3dbacked Yes	1c	1,554$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5578…e372backed Yes	1c	1,114$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3462…de48backed Yes	2c	1,063$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	1c	958.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	39	25.6%10 W · 29 L	+5.4wins	+0.14per pick	12cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event