TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,859 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf98…2f11backed Yes0c39,000$39 inLost-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3113…8926backed Yes0c26,118$26 inLost-$26.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685e…77d3backed Yes0c24,500$25 inLost-$24.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32f…2864backed Yes0c24,236$24 inLost-$24.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b5…b06cbacked Yes0c24,000$24 inLost-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf844…632ebacked Yes0c22,000$22 inLost-$2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9dd0backed Yes0c14,884$29 inLost-$29.5933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5189…eb05backed Yes0c14,000$14 inLost-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733c…6a17backed Yes0c11,880$12 inLost-$11.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4db9…9485backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost-$224440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes0c9,303$19 inLost-$18.613525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-32.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed Yes3c7,721$202 inLost-$201.865721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7169…0d7dbacked Yes1c5,412$32 inLost-$32.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ba…0c5bbacked Yes1c5,412$32 inLost-$32.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc961…b544backed Yes0c3,643$11 inLost-$10.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8abd…99e6backed Yes1c2,803$36 inLost-$36.36128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f8…1f02backed Yes1c1,540$10 inLost-$10.2425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes2c788.39$20 inLost-$19.553417.6%6 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.