Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d4cee5a4bb01e0a7b1a39f8a23b2af657d9cf06d1e0ed8443c6b09329b9be3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,746,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $281,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,746,028 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb275…5dc0backed Yes	0c	52,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	37,969$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.51	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes	0c	27,089$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.3	58	3.4%2 W · 56 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa80…1ee8backed Yes	0c	18,640$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed0…2202backed Yes	0c	17,800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee7f…99d3backed Yes	0c	17,400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes	0c	17,065$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb074…cc38backed Yes	0c	16,061$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	1c	15,864$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.21	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ce1…3a6abacked Yes	0c	15,660$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97a8…daffbacked Yes	0c	13,260$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2575…4420backed Yes	0c	12,960$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc118…b17fbacked Yes	0c	12,770$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed0c…0b5fbacked Yes	0c	12,460$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…52fdbacked Yes	0c	12,360$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb52…118dbacked Yes	0c	12,190$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc60f…8496backed Yes	0c	11,930$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa15e…7a84backed Yes	0c	11,660$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb109…0a3cbacked Yes	0c	11,560$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd32d…1051backed Yes	0c	11,350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbed…0d9bbacked Yes	0c	11,340$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44f5…7c17backed Yes	0c	11,240$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…5b7cbacked Yes	0c	11,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7934…822fbacked Yes	0c	11,040$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8422…69f7backed Yes	0c	10,780$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…fbeabacked Yes	0c	10,660$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d7…cfc8backed Yes	1c	10,580$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe708…9582backed Yes	1c	10,580$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	10,466$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.83	169	1.8%3 W · 166 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48cf…aed4backed Yes	0c	10,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c52…371fbacked Yes	0c	10,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa519…eda4backed Yes	0c	10,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe24f…76e1backed Yes	0c	10,160$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed Yes	1c	10,112$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.66	57	21.1%12 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8918…8824backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	1c	9,500$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.46	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa127…fd1bbacked Yes	1c	9,130$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb005…e690backed Yes	0c	7,741$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbee8…77c9backed Yes	1c	7,208$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	6,866$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	234	4.3%10 W · 224 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f38…a9bdbacked Yes	0c	6,201$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe53c…ee64backed Yes	1c	6,166$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e74…95a6backed Yes	1c	6,048$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.75	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,027$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd5…2111backed Yes	4c	4,956$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	1c	4,817$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.75	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x920f…ba6fbacked Yes	0c	4,472$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	1c	4,341$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	135	7.4%10 W · 125 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fa…860ebacked Yes	0c	4,234$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac51…a1fbbacked Yes	0c	4,174$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…adb5backed Yes	1c	4,084$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.58	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	3,710$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.66	254	3.5%9 W · 245 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	3,664$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	211	7.1%15 W · 196 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	3,569$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.23	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1999…fedbbacked Yes	1c	3,524$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.58	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+112.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0c…2a63backed Yes	3c	3,357$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	3,354$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	89	2.2%2 W · 87 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes	3c	3,176$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.72	143	30.8%44 W · 99 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65e…dfb3backed Yes	2c	3,085$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2886…97e4backed Yes	1c	3,085$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x000f…967dbacked Yes	1c	3,067$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0d6f…8eacbacked Yes	0c	3,037$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2fb…7decbacked Yes	2c	3,013$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb93d…48d9backed Yes	1c	3,010$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf209…10bbbacked Yes	2c	2,932$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.67	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf23b…edebbacked Yes	2c	2,666$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	2,637$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	166	4.2%7 W · 159 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes	1c	2,528$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x752d…ed84backed Yes	0c	2,329$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,319$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	61	4.9%3 W · 58 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes	1c	2,124$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes	1c	1,986$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+11.4wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	2c	1,801$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ec…e1a2backed Yes	1c	1,683$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a5…fbe2backed Yes	1c	1,460$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0944…3018backed Yes	1c	1,313$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8abd…99e6backed Yes	1c	1,295$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes	1c	1,163$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…ce57backed Yes	2c	1,126$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	2c	1,045$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	1c	1,009$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.77	134	44.8%60 W · 74 L	+17.1wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6aa4…aa56backed Yes	1c	990$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fca…f521backed Yes	2c	881.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x138b…00c2backed Yes	3c	384.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event