Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24a454785cac9984fde7736d0d4b37929b7253d527d359f547c909eec89862b9

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $475,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $139,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $475,222 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	68,271$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.27	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…0176backed Yes	0c	24,450$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c4…2d95backed Yes	0c	19,291$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.64	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x200e…1f66backed Yes	0c	19,039$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2295…894ebacked Yes	0c	14,083$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfec…9cccbacked Yes	1c	11,661$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.53	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+2,755.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3f…d9c2backed Yes	1c	10,342$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes	0c	9,720$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d79…28bdbacked Yes	0c	6,063$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+239.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb420…3d77backed Yes	0c	5,833$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,736$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.09	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc961…b544backed Yes	0c	3,694$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	3,558$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	169	1.8%3 W · 166 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	1c	1,609$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	79	19%15 W · 64 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85af…96f0backed Yes	1c	1,514$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event