Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae6d3d20bc8f742922dc40880cd8a8671c10385a9912fa7cd670fba0643dfe96

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,784,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,278,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,784,686 — the venue’s figure.

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Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,984 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa6fe…2d5dbacked Yes	1c	1,860,232$24,745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,744.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	175,454$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.76	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes	4c	132,674$4,991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,990.76	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4e…ad13backed Yes	20c	132,538$27,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27,120.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed No	79c	128,381$101,892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,489.14	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7644…7f5ebacked Yes	1c	104,941$1,393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,392.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…9df4backed Yes	0c	100,515$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.72	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3fe…de10backed Yes	19c	89,001$16,974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,974.07	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5174…433cbacked Yes	11c	74,444$8,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,179.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…3655backed Yes	19c	72,910$14,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,126.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e2…4b38backed Yes	15c	69,802$10,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,160.02	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No	77c	65,489$50,529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,960.06	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed Yes	30c	64,182$19,377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,376.79	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…5134backed Yes	47c	64,073$30,114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30,114.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x784c…1363backed Yes	1c	64,050$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes	14c	64,036$9,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,162.07	129	20.9%27 W · 102 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes	21c	60,493$12,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,778.44	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…1ea4backed Yes	33c	59,697$19,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,655.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No	74c	56,281$41,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,710.69	101	27.7%28 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes	18c	51,845$9,354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,354.08	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb00c…0f71backed Yes	12c	51,727$6,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,199.51	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes	24c	48,576$11,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,598.6	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff30…e315backed Yes	10c	48,041$4,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,620.32	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…a2c7backed Yes	18c	47,864$8,702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,702.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	10c	45,850$4,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,500.75	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59cf…11d2backed Yes	8c	45,806$3,547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,547.36	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	31c	42,686$13,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,074.53	118	53.4%63 W · 55 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53d6…b6e8backed No	76c	42,155$32,191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,963.36	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	7c	41,228$2,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,924.52	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8d…53d2backed Yes	15c	41,203$6,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,263.9	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No	76c	40,417$30,818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,599.87	142	40.8%58 W · 84 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ec…98f7backed Yes	11c	38,897$4,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,351.71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed3…4589backed Yes	10c	38,792$4,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,001.51	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab62…0eefbacked Yes	12c	38,074$4,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,498.37	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c1…d2b3backed Yes	15c	37,431$5,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,750	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No	78c	36,244$28,263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,981.26	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1d…04dcbacked Yes	13c	36,227$4,754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,754	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No	79c	35,562$28,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,441.5	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	31cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe399…793ebacked Yes	20c	34,843$7,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,037.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4505…62fbbacked Yes	16c	34,662$5,644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,644	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	5c	34,381$1,747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,747.22	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…5884backed Yes	38c	33,278$12,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,799.89	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a4…86eebacked No	53c	33,176$17,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,592.72	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b6…e069backed Yes	7c	32,272$2,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,187.48	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x546f…8c1ebacked Yes	1c	31,983$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0922…5045backed Yes	19c	31,391$6,081 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,080.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c0…0955backed Yes	18c	31,207$5,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,482.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1200…7813backed Yes	24c	31,155$7,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,432.56	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe117…ca0ebacked No	53c	30,867$16,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,507.49	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4593…8d75backed Yes	11c	30,507$3,489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,489.49	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed9b…d616backed Yes	38c	30,118$11,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,309.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa340…f3d4backed Yes	8c	29,650$2,362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,362.07	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes	4c	29,589$1,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,046.86	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes	33c	29,483$9,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,680.26	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	17c	29,390$4,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,993.68	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7697…1273backed Yes	24c	29,334$6,946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,945.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc193…5160backed Yes	7c	29,048$2,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,033.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f9…8a79backed Yes	20c	28,910$5,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,728.59	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2a1…ec51backed Yes	18c	28,531$5,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,153	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	3c	27,862$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.73	103	31.1%32 W · 71 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No	75c	27,556$20,737 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,818.97	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No	72c	26,978$19,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,497.81	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef57…805bbacked Yes	8c	26,960$2,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,106.49	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes	9c	26,947$2,515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,515.04	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f0…e11ebacked Yes	26c	26,638$6,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,924.2	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…1d4dbacked Yes	24c	26,391$6,228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,227.81	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c17…8372backed Yes	31c	26,225$8,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,108.37	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.18per pick	35cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes	14c	25,794$3,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,525.22	74	20.3%15 W · 59 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ec…7888backed Yes	8c	25,544$2,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,162.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0657…3226backed Yes	24c	25,333$6,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,075.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca2…9619backed Yes	4c	24,944$1,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,016.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes	37c	23,932$8,897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,896.71	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes	4c	23,776$1,028 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,028.26	110	13.6%15 W · 95 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1711…d1acbacked Yes	23c	23,473$5,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,359.1	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d2…7961backed Yes	28c	23,468$6,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,550.62	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62de…5348backed Yes	22c	23,317$5,122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,121.96	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfd…e348backed Yes	7c	22,952$1,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,524.72	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-61%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f9…14fabacked Yes	11c	22,894$2,611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,610.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf283…937bbacked Yes	15c	22,609$3,473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,472.77	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa00…f736backed Yes	22c	22,391$4,958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,958.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…77e1backed Yes	69c	21,663$15,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,000	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+66.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccae…d37abacked Yes	5c	21,657$1,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,168.33	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380b…4a7ebacked Yes	9c	21,244$1,921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,920.67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5b…141abacked Yes	13c	21,126$2,654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,654.14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5afe…af69backed Yes	38c	20,860$8,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,000	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1686…3cd3backed Yes	28c	20,537$5,847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,846.57	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd35b…4a53backed Yes	10c	20,005$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,919.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes	1c	20,003$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.01	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa23b…6d59backed Yes	8c	19,122$1,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,592.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No	75c	19,002$14,184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,817.02	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	18,343$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.72	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d44…329abacked Yes	25c	18,327$4,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,606.47	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	3c	17,940$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.72	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-16%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	17,776$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.02	169	1.8%3 W · 166 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	19c	17,589$3,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,260.33	79	19%15 W · 64 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	76c	17,094$13,066 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,027.85	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb925…c48cbacked Yes	42c	16,849$6,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,993.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x043c…8dc3backed Yes	20c	16,740$3,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,396.54	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a04…b21bbacked Yes	2c	16,726$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad7c…6244backed Yes	10c	16,147$1,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,616.12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event