TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,047 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost-$214440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed Yes1c14,988$85 inLost-$85.09728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c14,314$15 inLost-$15.3550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes0c9,726$19 inLost-$19.453525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-32.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes0c7,300$12 inLost-$11.9583.4%2 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f8…1f02backed Yes0c7,110$28 inLost-$27.93425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ca…d371backed Yes1c6,482$58 inLost-$57.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c3,541$12 inLost-$11.911664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6e…de7fbacked Yes1c1,500$15 inLost-$15.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5578…e372backed Yes1c1,017$15 inLost-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.