World Politics · resolved market
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c5cc21a1553f5a750d607063c963851d684205d020a44a498b401582dd4430d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes | 5c | 10,274$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.74 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 10c | 9,445$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.04 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 11c | 8,427$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.39 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…e1ccbacked Yes | 5c | 5,482$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 5,096$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.89 | 172 | 37.8%65 W · 107 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 4,768$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 4c | 4,097$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 3,994$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 5c | 3,340$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.68 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 6c | 2,657$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,539$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 5c | 2,300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,994$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.76 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 7c | 1,969$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 6c | 1,554$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c3e6backed Yes | 8c | 1,418$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,257$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…ac13backed Yes | 4c | 1,255$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,059$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +331.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 8c | 1,038$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 11c | 899.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 5c | 875.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 9c | 800$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 7c | 729.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 700.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 699.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 636.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 599.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 568.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…23f3backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 9c | 459.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed Yes | 15c | 450.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…dc9ebacked Yes | 2c | 431.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 4c | 416.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 392.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 5c | 387.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 12c | 385.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 5c | 326$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 10c | 323.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b0…7a12backed Yes | 12c | 322.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 302.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 262 | 40.1%105 W · 157 L | +16.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd4…0568backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 272.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 6c | 271.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 7c | 256.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…19d2backed Yes | 4c | 228.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 11c | 204$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…e835backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 9c | 136.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.