World Politics · resolved market
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0cd1311e134e6efc4cfa1d4ae29129f2e24e5f2471c3f4dbeb3c57cccfb9d59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 1c | 24,094$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.34 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…e1ccbacked Yes | 1c | 17,308$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 16,055$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,306$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,765$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…58fcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,368$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…ca97backed Yes | 2c | 4,728$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…9e2dbacked Yes | 61c | 4,028$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 3,336$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,225$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa2…6f3cbacked Yes | 41c | 3,048$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,539$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.41 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,238$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf068…0d2abacked Yes | 7c | 2,043$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 2,012$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.45 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +239.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 79c | 1,750$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.14 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 3c | 1,679$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,667$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…8022backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,588$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,581$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.41 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,408$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 54c | 1,386$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.26 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,382$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b7…42dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,232$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,189$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 2c | 1,096$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ecf8backed Yes | 5c | 1,076$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…634fbacked Yes | 3c | 901.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 664.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…e8edbacked No | 73c | 577.37$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…4f99backed Yes | 11c | 571.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…57afbacked Yes | 9c | 507.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…23f3backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 56c | 431.27$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2533…314cbacked Yes | 3c | 411.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed No | 56c | 407.87$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…69b7backed Yes | 3c | 324.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed No | 59c | 295.97$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 31c | 292.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.76 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…1351backed No | 74c | 277$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 275.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 62c | 270.05$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…6db6backed Yes | 12c | 249.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…71f5backed Yes | 8c | 222.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 80c | 214$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 180.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 29c | 175$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +11.7wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 21cpaid | +213.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 65c | 144.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 135.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…9e73backed Yes | 37c | 135.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 40c | 119.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 61c | 119.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…e985backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 41c | 99.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 34c | 87.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…3610backed Yes | 27c | 75.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 25.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 58c | 23.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.