TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$386,271
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,271 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c36,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f15…e1ccbacked Yes3c22,140$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc631…d2b4backed Yes0c15,732$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-85.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122d…183cbacked Yes3c15,692$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c14,485$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.256883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…e8a5backed Yes5c10,145$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe225…bffabacked Yes1c6,810$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed9…ca97backed Yes7c5,968$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.041513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c5,740$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.13333%1 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-94.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2a1…ec51backed Yes17c5,115$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x899b…3806backed Yes1c4,987$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a0…c02ebacked Yes7c4,498$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.451020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-52.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c4,372$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.69170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c0…3acdbacked Yes3c4,329$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8f…c951backed Yes3c4,318$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes0c3,890$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2615026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed3…4589backed Yes10c2,909$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes1c2,846$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.962133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+87.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9af4…0597backed Yes1c2,828$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes8c2,636$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.053010%3 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-82.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07ca…f2b6backed Yes1c2,542$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.47850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ac…e483backed Yes8c2,524$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb1…834cbacked Yes6c2,483$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Yes4c2,299$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c2,213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.164766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf9…7f7fbacked Yes6c1,854$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.45100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea7c…6c45backed Yes6c1,778$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5729…c06abacked Yes9c1,775$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c1,674$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.673925.6%10 W · 29 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb839…b8dbbacked Yes6c1,609$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a6…7b46backed Yes8c1,559$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.111330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a17…5791backed Yes7c1,444$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c4…db9fbacked Yes5c1,413$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74c4…c3e6backed Yes8c1,375$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.771136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes3c1,345$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7522355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes3c1,338$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.394221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06c…8022backed Yes2c1,262$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes1c1,257$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.672524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ad…6b75backed Yes32c1,247$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.051741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes17c1,244$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.835527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes6c1,241$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.94035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b8…bd68backed Yes8c1,197$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2074…c64ebacked Yes9c1,169$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91b…ac13backed Yes9c1,151$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-81.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes3c1,136$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-80.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes6c1,131$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.135030%15 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes17c1,111$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8e4…325cbacked Yes7c1,106$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d75…83e6backed Yes9c1,105$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf482…fe1bbacked Yes20c1,100$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc467…a8dbbacked Yes6c1,089$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…3578backed Yes10c1,046$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a88…eba5backed Yes5c1,045$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20010151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c949.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.412344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb75…85fcbacked Yes6c938.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab7…98a6backed Yes17c913.23$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes3c910.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6128434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes12c860.65$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.192317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x309b…474abacked Yes4c854.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d1…523bbacked Yes1c834.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x892c…f2eabacked Yes7c830.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb34b…dd81backed Yes6c807.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafbe…d3babacked Yes6c795.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9dd0backed No53c761.15$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.15933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x416e…a47fbacked Yes6c758.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked No44c751.75$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.853636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes3c732$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0431534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x791c…852dbacked Yes6c730.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c674.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.981357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb067…8f74backed Yes10c623.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05eb…7c72backed Yes6c620.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d9…c016backed Yes20c606.13$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c590.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.232117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes3c565.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.966927.5%19 W · 50 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0a…caf5backed Yes6c563.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb609…3c8ebacked Yes29c562.66$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05cb…672abacked Yes9c562.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5499…c615backed Yes6c517.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8b…973cbacked Yes7c506.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes6c502.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.02555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x859b…ce6fbacked Yes10c494.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b8…ec93backed Yes6c491.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x102a…df8ebacked Yes7c488.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.28520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-74.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd1…1782backed Yes6c479.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c9…68d0backed Yes8c466.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.32333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes8c461.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1411738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c7…bef9backed Yes7c460.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x311e…189abacked Yes6c460.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No73c444.33$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3617037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes23c434.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.145052%26 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc1a…e01fbacked Yes5c415$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes7c414.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.289035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe011…1dd5backed Yes10c399.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0a…91e1backed Yes4c391.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-81%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No56c370.89$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.513873.7%28 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeccc…71f5backed Yes26c368.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes28c360$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.82441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No72c360$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.83565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.