World Politics · resolved market
Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac611149128256883650fb703c24dcee3a2c3006d14b5f5f9e74acb46d5af36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 1c | 23,223$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…e1ccbacked Yes | 1c | 13,661$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,652$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…56aebacked Yes | 1c | 8,265$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 1c | 6,254$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe773…4bf7backed Yes | 0c | 5,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…d2b4backed Yes | 1c | 5,031$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…ae00backed Yes | 0c | 4,472$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,351$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 4,242$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…773fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,348$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 3,080$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,934$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,857$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,678$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,019$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…4019backed Yes | 1c | 1,692$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,614$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,460$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,419$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…91b6backed Yes | 2c | 839.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 811$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…adb5backed Yes | 4c | 437.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.