World Politics · resolved market
Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9df35cb3bef20c8080a4b50d8f733eac6531598e7638eae98579a9d8af059bc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,607$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,361.62 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 5c | 3,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 80c | 1,314$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.92 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,032$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 3c | 812$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 448.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.8 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 22c | 252.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.86 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 6c | 202.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.18 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 8c | 156.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 8c | 136$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 8c | 125.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes | 58c | 84.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…452cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats?this page
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 65 and 69 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 70 and 74 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 75 and 79 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 80 and 84 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win less than 65 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.