World Politics · resolved market
Will the Australian Labor Party win between 70 and 74 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512f0468a370c292e28d754869b616360cd1afd4f5aafb4131d55be8653c5dd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 11c | 2,822$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.76 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 22c | 1,384$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…7d58backed Yes | 22c | 826$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 185.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 154.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 29c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…b6e8backed Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…1d0ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 72c | 63.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 73c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 70 and 74 seats?this page
- Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats?Yes won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 65 and 69 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 75 and 79 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 80 and 84 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win less than 65 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.