World Politics · resolved market
Will the Australian Labor Party win between 75 and 79 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1521f09c2a529216353f0430218f40eb50e80aa82bba30616d9ad6cc6a449976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe66b…2eeebacked Yes | 37c | 28,567$10,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,569.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751e…3b9dbacked No | 63c | 28,567$17,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,569.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 43c | 1,815$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 37c | 590.41$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.67 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 313.82$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 37c | 206$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 55c | 186.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 44c | 162.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 40c | 126.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes | 47c | 113.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fb…140abacked Yes | 77c | 80.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…452cbacked Yes | 69c | 65.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 36c | 50.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…07c4backed Yes | 39c | 48.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…4816backed Yes | 39c | 40.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed2…7b45backed No | 61c | 34.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…5bc9backed No | 62c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 32.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…6935backed No | 62c | 31.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…b93dbacked Yes | 41c | 30.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…a064backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 39c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…0137backed No | 62c | 24.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…8857backed No | 62c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 75 and 79 seats?this page
- Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats?Yes won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 65 and 69 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 70 and 74 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win between 80 and 84 seats?No won
- Will the Australian Labor Party win less than 65 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.