TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$564,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$582,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e3e…4a75backed Yes11c22,852$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c22,650$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.933721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes3c14,198$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.14626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes19c12,750$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.473818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes4c12,470$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.287420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked No79c11,958$9,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.67785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfb…e789backed Yes17c11,823$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-79.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes5c8,600$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3922847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes21c8,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6805928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed No75c7,426$5,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.12875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes15c7,054$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.4532029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes18c6,498$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371e…c419backed Yes25c6,009$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ec…0d7cbacked Yes16c6,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes11c5,193$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5507428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes23c5,016$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.412649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27d8…ffc8backed Yes16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes22c4,698$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.084522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked No80c4,677$3,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.411546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes15c4,284$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.8937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes8c4,159$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-75.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes14c4,117$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.952626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes3c3,819$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.69810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No79c3,620$2,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.483441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes10c3,467$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.714814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes10c3,465$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.223221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96fc…457abacked Yes19c3,342$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.15911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3225…4cebbacked Yes15c3,253$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes14c3,190$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.76527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No78c2,791$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.0310055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4c…6fabbacked Yes18c2,788$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes16c2,726$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.617331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes22c2,637$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.2110324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes20c2,124$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.4623639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b4…db29backed Yes18c1,973$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.041338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes8c1,927$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.551931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe687…4d3ebacked No79c1,864$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes20c1,765$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9511541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes15c1,762$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.187441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed No75c1,695$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No75c1,576$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.0535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes17c1,550$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7418033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…920ebacked Yes17c1,528$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.791233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes15c1,500$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.864431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3743…e5b6backed Yes17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes7c1,443$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes20c1,430$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.72343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes23c1,354$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.59846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa84…cc4cbacked No80c1,327$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.111060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes16c1,308$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7317225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No79c1,257$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.9713537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x593c…72debacked Yes24c1,235$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No75c1,200$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2984156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes18c1,138$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.081618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d8…5403backed Yes18c1,125$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No78c1,104$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.823043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68cb…a3eebacked Yes15c1,088$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes6c1,084$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.34368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdec1…d355backed Yes2c1,074$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes24c1,000$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.485916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e91…85aabacked No71c999.1$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…eacfbacked Yes10c954.2$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes22c841$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1913029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4257…7af7backed Yes13c773.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes14c749.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10518746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8fd…aae9backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No78c605$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8914460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No76c599.99$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8eb3backed Yes2c586.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8390%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes27c585$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.941435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes13c565.55$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.093423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes18c553.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes16c534$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4518914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No79c526.13$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.497041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed No80c515$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1032045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db0…edb0backed Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8321…0ae1backed Yes20c492.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes21c457$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.794934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed Yes15c454$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.863154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0573…7c59backed Yes2c439.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes6c433.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb73…c340backed Yes23c431.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab9…e2f0backed Yes19c424.37$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5384…fe40backed Yes12c417.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes24c416.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004119.5%8 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No76c403$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3823149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f44…9db9backed Yes19c400$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes14c399.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.992035%7 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+108.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe13c…bf9bbacked Yes12c379.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes15c376.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.073735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9002…67f7backed No78c375$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes17c361.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes14c360$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.944729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes15c347.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.531643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.