Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c94b83ed914ebb3b8d54e1038675c8a31704b2e15f5df9a619388002aedc7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $564,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $582,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e3e…4a75backed Yes | 11c | 22,852$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 22,650$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.93 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 14,198$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.14 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 19c | 12,750$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.47 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 4c | 12,470$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.28 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 79c | 11,958$9,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.67 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfb…e789backed Yes | 17c | 11,823$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 8,600$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 21c | 8,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 75c | 7,426$5,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 7,054$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.45 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes | 18c | 6,498$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…c419backed Yes | 25c | 6,009$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…0d7cbacked Yes | 16c | 6,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 11c | 5,193$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 23c | 5,016$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.4 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…ffc8backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 22c | 4,698$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.08 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked No | 80c | 4,677$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 4,284$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.89 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 8c | 4,159$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes | 14c | 4,117$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.95 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,819$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 79c | 3,620$2,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.48 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 10c | 3,467$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.71 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 10c | 3,465$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…457abacked Yes | 19c | 3,342$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…4cebbacked Yes | 15c | 3,253$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 14c | 3,190$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.76 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 78c | 2,791$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.03 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4c…6fabbacked Yes | 18c | 2,788$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,726$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.61 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 22c | 2,637$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.21 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 20c | 2,124$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.46 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b4…db29backed Yes | 18c | 1,973$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 8c | 1,927$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe687…4d3ebacked No | 79c | 1,864$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 20c | 1,765$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.95 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 1,762$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.18 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed No | 75c | 1,695$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 75c | 1,576$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.05 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,550$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.74 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,528$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.86 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…e5b6backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 7c | 1,443$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,430$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 23c | 1,354$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…cc4cbacked No | 80c | 1,327$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 16c | 1,308$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.73 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 1,257$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.97 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…e954backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 24c | 1,235$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 75c | 1,200$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 18c | 1,138$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d8…5403backed Yes | 18c | 1,125$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 78c | 1,104$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…a3eebacked Yes | 15c | 1,088$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 1,084$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…d355backed Yes | 2c | 1,074$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.48 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…85aabacked No | 71c | 999.1$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eacfbacked Yes | 10c | 954.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 22c | 841$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 13c | 773.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 14c | 749.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…aae9backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 78c | 605$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 76c | 599.99$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…8eb3backed Yes | 2c | 586.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 27c | 585$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes | 13c | 565.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 18c | 553.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 16c | 534$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 79c | 526.13$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed No | 80c | 515$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8321…0ae1backed Yes | 20c | 492.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 21c | 457$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed Yes | 15c | 454$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0573…7c59backed Yes | 2c | 439.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 6c | 433.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 23c | 431.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…e2f0backed Yes | 19c | 424.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…fe40backed Yes | 12c | 417.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 24c | 416.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 76c | 403$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…9db9backed Yes | 19c | 400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 14c | 399.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe13c…bf9bbacked Yes | 12c | 379.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 15c | 376.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…67f7backed No | 78c | 375$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 17c | 361.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 14c | 360$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 15c | 347.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.