TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,312,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,498,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,312,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb75…0252backed Yes14c60,604$8,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,273.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd124…e0babacked Yes2c53,627$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c6e…5c3dbacked Yes0c25,799$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c18,961$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.282847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c16,536$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.91580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes20c15,367$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes0c13,608$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.222240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes3c8,771$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Yes12c8,241$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c6,198$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.351244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fc…8b8cbacked Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes15c5,405$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf672…e55abacked Yes1c5,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes11c4,326$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes13c3,899$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed Yes17c3,682$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.171866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes15c3,400$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53c2…05a3backed Yes5c3,253$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c3,158$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3743…e5b6backed Yes5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes18c2,847$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.467331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0bd…ce39backed Yes1c2,556$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes3c2,548$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.345928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,395$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.95490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes16c2,361$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.9213537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes19c2,321$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.9932029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes12c2,250$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2752626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,014$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.022400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…6544backed Yes14c2,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes3c2,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeef9…195ebacked Yes1c1,805$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes7c1,770$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.91442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes11c1,741$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.462425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes8c1,502$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.19837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…8e91backed Yes9c1,490$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes16c1,490$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2355137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes2c1,448$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.787227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes14c1,254$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x663b…a9c5backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes15c1,177$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.571717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cdf…c324backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-59.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf13d…fec3backed Yes15c1,047$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x692f…05d3backed Yes10c1,042$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78d7…28f0backed Yes3c1,034$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes11c957.94$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.183540%14 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes8c920$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.62035%7 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+53.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e8…69babacked Yes2c910.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes13c910.34$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1513673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0018…3a1bbacked Yes4c856.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes17c848.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.937441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe064…cd51backed Yes2c805.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c2…adc5backed No80c767$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.48540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x273c…0788backed Yes8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb956…c475backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…00aabacked Yes8c685.37$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No63c678.05$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.9715124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3928…fc16backed Yes7c676.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes4c671.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0412531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes9c666.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes9c666.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df7…d6e2backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6b…3742backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes8c665.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb4…70e6backed Yes8c657.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf9…e645backed Yes2c612.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes11c600$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d22…b357backed Yes14c555.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x271c…e1abbacked Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8387…ace9backed Yes15c517$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.552045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Yes6c515.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.031241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf136…60adbacked Yes12c432.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes8c416.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.323423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes4c384$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78ab…5c76backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…844ebacked Yes8c312.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7116…0e72backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x124a…1332backed Yes14c281.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.15850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa91…68cebacked Yes4c272.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374c…d53fbacked Yes19c266.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4608…f6edbacked Yes19c252.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42af…78c6backed Yes8c252.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6539522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee5…fb4bbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff30…32e1backed Yes19c247.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f70…eebdbacked Yes19c247.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb1…1b08backed Yes19c241.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb28…7590backed Yes19c241.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b72…0af9backed Yes19c241.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa24…cd5ebacked Yes19c240.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…2027backed Yes19c240.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x020b…76b1backed Yes19c239.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2a…90d3backed Yes19c239.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d9…a153backed Yes19c238.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7c…20c0backed Yes19c238.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.