Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed9f77e6390c375b1fd51b40245c02ef7f4493e2cd835961603c51ff7603717
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $756,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $695,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $756,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c34…026fbacked No | 5c | 75,492$3,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 8c | 36,000$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.99 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 26c | 30,468$7,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,926.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…5f7bbacked No | 9c | 25,198$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 5c | 21,934$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.08 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b75…bad1backed No | 5c | 17,472$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…88e8backed No | 3c | 13,800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.03 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 13,283$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.14 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…bfb7backed No | 1c | 13,037$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 16c | 12,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed No | 1c | 10,406$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…5731backed No | 1c | 10,215$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed No | 4c | 10,004$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 4c | 10,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.04 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 14c | 9,698$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.35 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 17c | 9,630$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.31 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…76b7backed No | 21c | 7,194$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 10c | 7,064$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 6,733$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…9bdbbacked No | 6c | 6,632$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 14c | 5,587$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.19 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…f47bbacked No | 2c | 5,566$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…fd89backed No | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 20c | 4,950$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.94 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…1607backed No | 4c | 4,873$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 7c | 4,844$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.86 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54f…3947backed No | 14c | 4,468$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked Yes | 79c | 3,963$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed No | 14c | 3,571$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87c…46b7backed No | 8c | 3,544$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e67…f192backed No | 3c | 3,428$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…2823backed No | 23c | 3,345$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 79c | 3,157$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.87 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 3c | 3,152$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…ce31backed No | 5c | 2,888$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 13c | 2,651$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.03 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed No | 4c | 2,473$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 3c | 2,412$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 3c | 2,367$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed No | 1c | 2,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…c16abacked No | 9c | 2,110$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…ed63backed No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 13c | 1,983$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 19c | 1,914$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 80c | 1,875$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 20c | 1,845$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.07 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…ddfebacked No | 19c | 1,796$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked No | 4c | 1,793$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed No | 3c | 1,768$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 1,650$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 17c | 1,622$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.03 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335b…ff9fbacked No | 17c | 1,613$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed No | 4c | 1,555$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 2c | 1,510$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9421…c375backed No | 17c | 1,508$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…ec40backed No | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8075…689bbacked No | 3c | 1,434$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed No | 14c | 1,392$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 3c | 1,360$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed No | 4c | 1,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 78c | 1,250$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…f9d4backed No | 4c | 1,250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 7c | 1,188$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…7d4ebacked No | 21c | 1,178$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 7c | 1,104$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 16c | 1,091$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.69 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 15c | 1,078$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…49fdbacked Yes | 79c | 1,075$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…2a81backed No | 19c | 1,065$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 7c | 1,063$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…d811backed No | 4c | 1,048$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 18c | 1,044$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.83 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…8758backed No | 20c | 1,023$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…0deebacked Yes | 77c | 1,003$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…fa25backed No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…b968backed No | 3c | 999.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…58bbbacked No | 1c | 949.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…2605backed No | 4c | 904.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 80c | 900$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…e74dbacked Yes | 72c | 873.48$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked No | 3c | 830.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f2…8794backed No | 2c | 822.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 12c | 803.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…64cdbacked Yes | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 19c | 799.95$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bfa0backed No | 13c | 797.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 790.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842d…ed24backed No | 12c | 788.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 78c | 779.5$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.99 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked No | 3c | 740.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…0308backed No | 19c | 730.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 15c | 707.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 12c | 700$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 4c | 696.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…d94fbacked No | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.