Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3352055fa84dfd0bc3f9bcec85a5f464fd1096fbb9a469d36b5afcdf54eb0423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,009,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,053,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,009,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes | 1c | 54,563$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 5c | 52,248$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.45 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…8ec4backed Yes | 5c | 51,604$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…b17bbacked Yes | 2c | 46,043$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76cd…4338backed Yes | 4c | 33,587$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…c587backed Yes | 4c | 31,379$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…b76fbacked Yes | 4c | 30,000$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 3c | 29,564$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 6c | 27,165$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.22 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…48c6backed Yes | 4c | 26,476$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 4c | 26,249$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.95 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x444a…1913backed Yes | 4c | 26,132$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 4c | 24,611$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…d6ddbacked Yes | 4c | 22,958$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 4c | 20,130$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.64 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…03b5backed Yes | 4c | 18,105$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 17,937$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.32 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 17,554$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.88 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…416abacked Yes | 6c | 17,186$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…dd00backed Yes | 4c | 16,607$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…6ca7backed Yes | 13c | 16,476$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1b…21f1backed Yes | 4c | 16,402$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adc…a5a8backed Yes | 4c | 14,802$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…7851backed Yes | 4c | 14,280$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 11,930$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.55 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 11,280$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.76 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…f1d4backed Yes | 4c | 11,248$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…0df9backed Yes | 4c | 11,125$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…1caebacked Yes | 4c | 10,948$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 3c | 10,552$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.07 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 5c | 10,311$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.24 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 10,289$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.04 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 3c | 10,249$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…4cb0backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…7bb3backed Yes | 6c | 9,918$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0432backed Yes | 2c | 9,515$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,414$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…30efbacked Yes | 5c | 9,324$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…e55abacked Yes | 2c | 8,826$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 3c | 8,596$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 8,450$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.04 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 2c | 7,749$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f9…9dbebacked Yes | 6c | 7,639$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…0a14backed Yes | 5c | 7,303$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…bbf8backed Yes | 4c | 6,818$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…95cabacked Yes | 3c | 6,700$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…5decbacked Yes | 6c | 6,429$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…3155backed Yes | 5c | 6,182$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 6,038$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed Yes | 6c | 6,011$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 5,676$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.11 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 4c | 5,421$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…c197backed Yes | 4c | 5,264$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 2c | 5,244$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…2dd1backed Yes | 5c | 4,792$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,767$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…bf98backed Yes | 4c | 4,545$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…bafcbacked Yes | 5c | 4,435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…d3afbacked Yes | 5c | 4,432$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,327$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e9…30e2backed Yes | 6c | 4,212$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…e5b6backed Yes | 4c | 4,194$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…853abacked Yes | 5c | 4,041$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,389$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.23 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes | 4c | 3,281$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,272$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 4c | 3,079$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…9575backed Yes | 3c | 3,059$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…15aebacked Yes | 4c | 3,044$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…186fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,930$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…e300backed Yes | 3c | 2,861$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…be0fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,783$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a10dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,650$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a3…ac88backed Yes | 2c | 2,614$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…5626backed Yes | 6c | 2,590$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…e7d9backed Yes | 4c | 2,568$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…6bf5backed Yes | 3c | 2,496$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…8e9fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,319$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 2,307$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 4c | 2,246$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6e…5c3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…134abacked Yes | 2c | 2,173$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed Yes | 4c | 2,144$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 2,144$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 4c | 2,110$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 3c | 2,109$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…d355backed Yes | 2c | 2,045$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf403…5b97backed Yes | 4c | 2,026$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…f8e2backed Yes | 1c | 2,006$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…db49backed Yes | 5c | 2,004$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…b7fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,992$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +224.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 1,985$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…88debacked Yes | 2c | 1,974$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,969$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5762…7e6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,939$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…afadbacked Yes | 4c | 1,863$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad16…f5f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,847$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.