TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x97c1…3d36

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT4355.8%24 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+205.7%+$997.54
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$825
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10,341Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10,341.34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.8%+$624.57
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.6%+$374.39
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.3%+$162.01
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$231
Israel strikes Yemen again by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$157.14
Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+440.4%+$66.05
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.68
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$352
Israel strikes Syria by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+57%+$85.47
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$281.25
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$85.7
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,165Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.3%+$492.97
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$889Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$253.08
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.96
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$19.76
Israel strike on Iran on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$24.12
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$34.5
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+140.7%+$118.12
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+1,005.1%+$372.9
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.45
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.5
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.2
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+47.3%+$47.28
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$42
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$103
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+37%+$36.99
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+53.3%+$106.53
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+430.1%+$516.14
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$701Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+36.8%+$257.79
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$97.22
Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST-100%-$150.8
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$55.5
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+120.3%+$54.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.