Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Yemen again by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde9a19033dd3f94db1243e9252d738fe32b3399aa038b55adc538511129eaca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 3,012$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 74c | 2,544$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.92 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed No | 45c | 1,986$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.38 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 29c | 829.19$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.69 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked Yes | 61c | 824.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.27 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 57c | 695.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.85 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 645.18$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.25 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 65c | 578.01$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.84 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 59c | 559$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.52 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 59c | 415.95$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…28a6backed No | 37c | 410$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 61c | 370$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 44c | 344.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 62c | 323.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 58c | 309.7$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked No | 44c | 309.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 32c | 307.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 61c | 300$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 38c | 278.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.55 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed No | 40c | 250.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 58c | 250$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed No | 38c | 219.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 57c | 206.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 200.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 68c | 197.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Yes | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed No | 31c | 173$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…2ba8backed Yes | 58c | 158$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 58c | 139.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 26c | 133.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 66c | 132$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 93.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed No | 42c | 91.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 66c | 84.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…37a4backed Yes | 58c | 83.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0454…859ebacked No | 46c | 71.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…8c43backed No | 45c | 68.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…23c9backed No | 33c | 59.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…90a2backed Yes | 60c | 59.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 32c | 56.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 33c | 56.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 62c | 52.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…885abacked Yes | 55c | 41.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 60c | 40.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…3eadbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666e…aa2dbacked Yes | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…b01cbacked Yes | 58c | 33.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 38c | 31.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…c3f5backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…5a23backed Yes | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…04febacked Yes | 61c | 23.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe934…c3c4backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…7a52backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f2…0f59backed Yes | 63c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 55c | 18.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.