TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$928,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$968,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $928,001 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes15c66,706$10,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,022.084818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes15c49,817$7,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,571.523839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes14c13,500$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8901758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+112.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes12c11,604$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.091723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e3…4603backed Yes16c10,845$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.993435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes16c9,523$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.264940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb998…d9b2backed Yes20c6,995$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c6,316$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3201…6634backed Yes15c6,298$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-70.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes15c6,035$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.672619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8833…2393backed Yes15c5,855$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.25560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+297.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes16c5,767$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.931758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+57.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a6…4bd3backed Yes15c5,748$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes18c4,994$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.192934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes16c4,325$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6904436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes14c4,043$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.989426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes14c4,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5803844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x840a…d481backed Yes17c3,797$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes15c3,711$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.58185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4222…8aa7backed Yes13c3,340$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ccf…a58fbacked Yes19c3,313$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes13c3,258$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Yes16c3,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4805928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes12c2,857$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.3899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes9c2,843$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.22714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes16c2,700$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.814125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes17c2,650$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44118033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes15c2,534$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.06633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes18c2,500$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.691717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes17c2,471$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x17b4…3f75backed Yes15c2,266$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c2,253$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8935519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ce…f646backed Yes16c2,250$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b1…a2c8backed Yes10c2,194$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5d…f397backed Yes16c2,050$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed Yes15c2,030$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.61625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b54…cb72backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d7…e8c6backed Yes4c1,853$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes15c1,845$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ba4…0caabacked Yes14c1,773$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes20c1,757$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.4516854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes18c1,752$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.9723639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes20c1,750$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes21c1,716$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.975135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6734…fd07backed Yes16c1,602$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24980%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes16c1,568$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bb8…49bfbacked Yes15c1,504$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes14c1,450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2365…855ebacked Yes14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f7…b251backed Yes16c1,426$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes14c1,416$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9313525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c7…1a7dbacked Yes4c1,379$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee64…c04ebacked Yes16c1,293$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed Yes15c1,262$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes17c1,260$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.142142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes19c1,252$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.875825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes7c1,200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5615124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes12c1,162$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14014819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…18c5backed Yes4c1,123$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b0…c32abacked Yes16c1,082$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes15c1,082$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.612520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe68c…e53bbacked Yes15c1,063$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…a3cbbacked Yes7c1,036$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.681118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-68.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes15c1,000$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.096137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0313943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6082…79a7backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4949…d3b8backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes14c1,000$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1372147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7272…a67dbacked No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes17c999.04$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.182222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56a3…8790backed Yes13c995.84$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes16c933.29$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.334126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes4c918.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.621466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes16c912.35$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes14c900$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.23237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Yes16c862.75$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-67.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes6c861.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.114624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x800c…e4c6backed Yes18c846.11$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes7c820.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7832…6cd7backed Yes18c804.02$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed Yes15c800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes17c799.56$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8119435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad96…da44backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes15c749.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.53540%14 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d1…738fbacked Yes14c740$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd069…e72ebacked Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c9…8181backed Yes2c689.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes6c683.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bfb…3ad9backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes7c664.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2800…1524backed Yes16c637.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.