TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd069…e72e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$280
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$97
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$560
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.7
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+69.6%+$114.85
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$231
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$81
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$58.37
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+72.5%+$96.45
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+38.7%+$45.65
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$310
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.2
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+121%+$484.19
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+163.6%+$392.67
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$800.43
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.49
Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+398%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+896%+$340.47
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$532Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$531.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.