Middle East · resolved market
Another Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4ef7b4bd20e006516589cdad9778c314dfe6999e6e7b0dc285350dbc32e2a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,996$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 9c | 3,640$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 7c | 3,200$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…0991backed Yes | 12c | 3,190$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 9c | 1,985$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked Yes | 3c | 1,237$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 16c | 1,180$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa891…6ed8backed Yes | 10c | 1,066$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 9c | 997.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 12c | 827.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 799.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…e932backed Yes | 7c | 794.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Yes | 7c | 791.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…3820backed Yes | 15c | 669.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 10c | 626.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…8d44backed Yes | 18c | 558.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 497.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 11c | 492.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 10c | 489.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 478.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 9c | 476.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 7c | 466.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…f425backed Yes | 25c | 449.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 440$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…ddf3backed Yes | 11c | 386.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 10c | 374.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 10c | 367.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…1811backed Yes | 11c | 367.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666e…aa2dbacked Yes | 8c | 360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 10c | 355$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…e126backed Yes | 30c | 333.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac4…c8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 319.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 6c | 303.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 74c | 290.46$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…bfa7backed Yes | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…838ebacked Yes | 12c | 268.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 10c | 266.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 10c | 229$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 12c | 215$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…2d5bbacked Yes | 9c | 211.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 201.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes | 15c | 200.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Yes | 8c | 199.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…c123backed Yes | 9c | 197.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 10c | 191.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 8c | 189.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…524ebacked Yes | 8c | 189.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…16b1backed Yes | 11c | 182.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 14cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…f541backed Yes | 29c | 173.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 9c | 172.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…8f1ebacked Yes | 12c | 170.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 12c | 167.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed Yes | 10c | 167$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b89…2755backed Yes | 12c | 156.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…2e50backed Yes | 29c | 139.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…0dc0backed Yes | 8c | 136.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 11c | 131.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 127.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…8c19backed Yes | 17c | 107.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfb…1b5cbacked Yes | 12c | 101.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…055abacked Yes | 15c | 101.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ea37backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 11c | 99.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 76c | 22.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 63c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…810dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.