Ukraine · resolved market
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f5b480ce062048d55188f09a78654b5be67356c3ab2cbd86e3b61fe95418cf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 3c | 16,989$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.01 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…6457backed Yes | 4c | 11,003$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 5,775$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…df4bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,936$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,209$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 2c | 4,069$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 3,677$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…e386backed Yes | 2c | 3,052$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 2,832$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…0aa8backed Yes | 2c | 2,126$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,850$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 727$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 591.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e307backed Yes | 2c | 437.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.