Middle East · resolved market
Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e21df25016493e5afad92be9f0cb0ded6d590ce1e44dc8567cfc4de9f48e984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 75c | 1,587$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.19 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab9…beb5backed Yes | 30c | 1,554$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 71c | 1,200$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.99 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,147$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,022$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…b9bebacked Yes | 33c | 905.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 17c | 809.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 547.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 12c | 505.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 5c | 505$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…74efbacked Yes | 13c | 452.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 11c | 400.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 25c | 395.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked No | 71c | 393.52$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…bdcbbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 14c | 332.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 11c | 315.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…07f1backed Yes | 12c | 307.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 75c | 299.68$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…44f6backed Yes | 46c | 299.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 9c | 266.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 255$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 9c | 233.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 24c | 202.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 20c | 199.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 16c | 199.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…18aabacked Yes | 16c | 192.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…e831backed Yes | 10c | 187.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 7c | 180.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 29c | 172.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d95…735ebacked Yes | 12c | 164.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 26c | 151.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 14c | 147.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 38c | 132.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…5399backed Yes | 31c | 128.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 12c | 126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…a667backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes | 17c | 119.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 18c | 114.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 18c | 112.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 16c | 110.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 30c | 100.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 30c | 77.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 72c | 72.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…183ebacked Yes | 29c | 69.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 24cpaid | +744.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb025…886fbacked No | 74c | 67.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 63.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d4…8035backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 55c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 73c | 56.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 71c | 54.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 78c | 41.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 31c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…3720backed No | 59c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe079…bdeebacked No | 78c | 35.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed No | 64c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?this page
- Will Austria recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will Finland recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will New Zealand recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.