Middle East · resolved market
Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59fa0528fbc692162fb43beeed16f42eeeeddac3d40d5b987a69d710b68e743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 2,861$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.23 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed No | 80c | 2,479$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.38 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked Yes | 16c | 2,368$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 25c | 2,063$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.01 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,827$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 14c | 1,397$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,175$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 11c | 981.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 19c | 754$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 14c | 693.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 20c | 543.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes | 16c | 506.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 16c | 474.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…7655backed Yes | 13c | 412.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 12c | 383.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…aff2backed Yes | 15c | 381.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…2c38backed Yes | 21c | 340.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 4c | 335.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 16c | 330.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 13c | 294$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 24cpaid | +744.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 15c | 271.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…14d4backed Yes | 20c | 248.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…08a1backed Yes | 20c | 177.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 13c | 169.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 19c | 163.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…2b89backed Yes | 14c | 157.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 14c | 143.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 142.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +13.6wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…98bcbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 22c | 115.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked Yes | 18c | 113.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…4deabacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 14c | 107.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes | 16c | 105.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…ff97backed Yes | 22c | 100.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…e0eabacked Yes | 13c | 99.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d4…8035backed Yes | 21c | 97.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 12c | 95.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…255cbacked Yes | 24c | 82.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 16c | 79.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…b277backed Yes | 16c | 70.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb025…886fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 19c | 60.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…1981backed Yes | 19c | 56.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 56c | 18.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +316.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23d…9e3cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?this page
- Will Austria recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will Finland recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will New Zealand recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.