Middle East · resolved market
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9e084caed94877e6333c0e690901ead14e47695591d64f7c8fd4029c4cc008
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 6c | 4,352$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 1,126$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,108$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 80c | 1,000$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 76c | 929.01$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.96 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 24c | 919.97$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.46 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 18c | 657.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 640.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3841…f9bcbacked Yes | 22c | 534.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 25c | 445.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 19c | 443.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 403$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…c15fbacked Yes | 25c | 396.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 73c | 388.52$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 21c | 360.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…b804backed Yes | 27c | 337.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked No | 80c | 320.41$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 13c | 320$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…9109backed No | 75c | 305.57$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…e831backed Yes | 9c | 226.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 17c | 201$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 24cpaid | +744.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d61…0000backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 72c | 198.41$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 189$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…f0b1backed Yes | 9c | 188.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 7c | 165.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 21c | 159.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…5597backed Yes | 17c | 151.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 18c | 151.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 14c | 143.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 13c | 133.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 72c | 121.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…255cbacked Yes | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 108.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…a79abacked Yes | 26c | 107.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked Yes | 27c | 91.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8823…37ccbacked Yes | 23c | 89.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…0065backed Yes | 29c | 87.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 19c | 77.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 73c | 57.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 74c | 48.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe946…c907backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025?this page
- Will Austria recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will Finland recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will New Zealand recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
- Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?Yes won
- Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.