TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$884,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$984,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $884,835 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd262…8553backed Yes17c51,337$8,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,783.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d64…4073backed Yes13c36,141$4,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,795.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes11c24,042$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.253321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6763…de40backed Yes12c15,421$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…6bafbacked Yes16c12,520$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c12,342$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6542818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes13c12,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5602532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91cd…0b6bbacked Yes22c9,705$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes10c8,926$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.441520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes10c8,005$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.388617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes3c7,500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.529129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe5e…835dbacked No75c5,670$4,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.42475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d6…395bbacked Yes15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c4,520$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.721717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes15c4,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d3e…a677backed Yes4c4,369$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes19c4,260$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes12c3,760$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes17c3,496$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6044022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes8c3,359$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.736141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8d…19e8backed Yes15c3,184$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.61540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes12c3,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No76c2,824$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.685354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes11c2,804$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.9242120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes15c2,578$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.815626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e4…2bcdbacked Yes12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7d5…7652backed Yes16c2,474$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52f…30fabacked Yes15c2,193$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.95850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a7b…03b0backed Yes5c2,096$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1028…6d9cbacked Yes14c2,043$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.761127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42031241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes8c1,930$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.64634.8%16 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+104.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes10c1,900$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.774010%4 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b16…961fbacked Yes16c1,875$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes12c1,800$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2162227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes14c1,574$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.972516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2255032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes13c1,396$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes9c1,299$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.234126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e0…41d2backed Yes11c1,264$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes12c1,250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a46…5b84backed Yes12c1,250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0a1…b34abacked Yes12c1,167$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d9…f923backed Yes13c1,100$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes3c1,008$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb4…179fbacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes16c1,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15512138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31cc…b804backed Yes3c974.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes7c951.43$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.62711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes4c927.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes11c900$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9515324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No76c900$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2163850%19 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+67%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes13c890$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.253619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc028…9349backed Yes14c861.7$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes14c860$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b11…3528backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf1a…66e6backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes15c829.73$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.392339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fe…7537backed Yes4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf277…0157backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4223…a1e8backed Yes13c758.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+50.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Yes15c720$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.83743.2%16 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes8c710.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.841080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+31.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes7c704.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.331612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97b5…42f9backed Yes11c700$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes15c667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5226…b4f5backed Yes9c639.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe567…e4debacked Yes4c618.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.75119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-83.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes14c605.38$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.510139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b74…778cbacked Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502924.1%7 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick12cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x636f…2b89backed Yes3c540.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes19c526.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes4c520.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+125.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ea5…6bb9backed Yes13c515.89$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes9c505.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x641e…aeb7backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482a…00b6backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed Yes15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c473.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.561,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc968…f422backed Yes3c473.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed Yes21c472.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf904…85ecbacked Yes13c442.95$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes18c442$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.324234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d50…1baebacked Yes3c436.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes16c419.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.162931%9 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6a…5d77backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a8…ab37backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c408$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes13c407$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.053228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa23…368bbacked Yes15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed04…2c6cbacked Yes3c366$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe340…5666backed Yes14c356.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c352.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.