TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x761d…0687backed Yes12c5,576$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes34c4,186$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.1599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c2,744$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.52397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x653a…bb03backed Yes37c2,196$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,741$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.71,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c1,564$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.0669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c1,488$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes19c1,483$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.653915.4%6 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed Yes23c1,218$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7604…32cbbacked Yes23c1,078$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd069…e72ebacked Yes7c1,027$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes55c902.01$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c2…67adbacked Yes34c869.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes24c808.27$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.162222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes36c777.77$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8410630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a45…0876backed Yes50c740.65$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4881…39e0backed No70c718.2$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes7c704.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8d…c52cbacked Yes30c673.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes37c627.19$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3416544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No70c619.99$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1874814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No58c612.47$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.64459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed No61c608.56$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.743268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No63c593.74$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.75552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ce…5975backed Yes33c587.26$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.36540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+84.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c581.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.723989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes44c560.41$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.947244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x120d…710ebacked No69c507.19$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.741376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+77.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No74c460.41$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.083452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes36c455.13$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.577934.2%27 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf52…30a5backed Yes5c423.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes37c418$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.444839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No57c417.41$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.057556%42 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54f0…8a13backed Yes5c400.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes73c398.47$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ab2…1888backed No57c396.43$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked No48c317.77$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.291855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No70c316.29$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.293852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes41c312$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.462157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No42c309.62$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.17332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c306.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes45c299.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1361618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed No60c299.75$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.491625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d4f…d0f6backed Yes40c297.24$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-75.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa635…8530backed No63c281.49$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.92850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No51c277.78$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.6713943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes12c275$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.96431.3%20 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed Yes38c264.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes27c258$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.123218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf379…ca0bbacked Yes6c256.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No44c254.87$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.821816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Yes23c250$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.52733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd478…4fa1backed No48c248.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.311464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes8c239$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No59c236$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.473171%22 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes5c229.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.231827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes5c228.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid+3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No71c216.06$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.842250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed No48c211$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.372850%14 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes30c191.67$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.514048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes54c183.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes37c180$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.62128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No57c179.01$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2919435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4578…c54abacked No62c177$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.381952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No71c176.28$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3d7…94cabacked Yes44c170.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No60c167.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.454673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1a1…d308backed Yes29c164.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.131637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.937473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd89b…21e6backed Yes10c160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes35c159.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49d4…ec2ebacked No63c159.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-68.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes51c157.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.611936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dff…f158backed Yes46c157.14$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes22c152.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.288250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No60c151.75$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3314230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eef…0e99backed Yes8c145$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.461050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes39c142.87$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.156241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked Yes48c141.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.895438.9%21 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc235…12cfbacked Yes11c140$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.651145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes31c137.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.875349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No62c132.48$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6713673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7623…7176backed Yes39c131.03$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No12c130.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5811120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed No64c130$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.32657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No72c129.61$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0115155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ed…9091backed Yes37c126$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes28c121$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.082924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x419d…7817backed Yes40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes11c114.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.115339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed No56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.134969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x613a…b945backed No63c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes27c109.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.218516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked No56c109$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.511070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes40c107.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes39c107.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.856423.4%15 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c102$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.