TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,987 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06ec…f845backed Yes13c15,728$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.6121935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf39…3101backed No77c3,628$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.01875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes7c2,991$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2432626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed Yes25c2,084$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.373935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No75c2,036$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No78c1,960$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.743171%22 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccb4…ac9cbacked No76c1,932$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes17c1,192$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7211936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c1,098$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes26c999.75$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.53915.4%6 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes30c998.92$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.92944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes24c978.54$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.497265.3%47 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed Yes8c949$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.922634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-45.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c915.35$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked Yes21c905.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.42846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No64c894.05$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.5517452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4222…8aa7backed Yes31c819.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c810.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3633313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c759.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.711,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c758.81$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No70c747.04$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.785250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes3c702.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4222641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes27c666$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.82120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed Yes51c665$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.11060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked No70c549.99$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1671855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes16c535$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.69557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No71c526.87$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.966256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c516$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.943989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes61c499.96$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.989549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce06…9a1ebacked No44c458.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.451936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No73c440.07$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.071540%6 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No78c415.17$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8913943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked No74c370$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.21070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes16c350$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-77.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…e1c3backed Yes29c349.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No73c333$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.083658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes29c322.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.656230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes8c322.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.821827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No61c299.19$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.87332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No75c294.66$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.665832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed No59c281.21$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.552152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdacb…af2bbacked No71c280.74$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.74650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No50c260.18$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.093548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf454…7eccbacked Yes18c240$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.83644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No45c223.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1313673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes24c218.49$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.997167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8643…cb9bbacked Yes61c211$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.71520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No76c203.61$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.943438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee64…c04ebacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes55c198.6$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1110630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No74c183.64$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.344459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b88…86c4backed No78c179.98$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+63.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…a406backed Yes8c177.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c0…1484backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Yes22c160$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x100d…496abacked Yes31c153.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.991010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5c…4ce5backed No73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-77.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed Yes33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed No39c148.72$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.724652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+41.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.937473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbf9c…115fbacked No71c140.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.291241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4f…d0f6backed Yes21c138.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-75.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked No72c138.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.179831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes29c132.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.921838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No76c130$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.22050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes23c125$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed No72c124.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.432528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d0…a7efbacked No46c111.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d9d…4f5fbacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2614230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319340.9%38 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2914460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes57c99.38$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.833348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes24c95.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.042010%2 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No75c95.15$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.654163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked No70c94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.25844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f2e…3f92backed No50c91.56$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8403…5c98backed No34c89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.353974.4%29 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No74c83.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.847672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6e85…40c4backed No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+48.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc235…12cfbacked No41c77.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.221145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No44c75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8513341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c68.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.711,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No74c67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.422657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1616…a3fabacked No39c64.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.14100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes35c63.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.468250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.912839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5990…4deabacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…837abacked Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.286572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x253e…bf81backed No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed No80c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.