Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1feeb2bb297314356299bacc411a5d1174d4e4df4ba8d408529f377f590f779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 11c | 10,611$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.72 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 29c | 1,808$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.88 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 78c | 899.69$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.64 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 79c | 720.01$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 75c | 659.24$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 23c | 475.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 420.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 19c | 345$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 79c | 337.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 292.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…76d9backed No | 78c | 249.12$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 238.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…21e6backed Yes | 31c | 173.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 83.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…40c4backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…1e8dbacked Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 73c | 58.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…313bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 34c | 37.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked Yes | 39c | 29.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…a7b2backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…33fdbacked No | 80c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in August?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.