Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a348e5d07ae3601a84ff33acd8e90b7c3e368c22736fac1430641c88c488f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 29c | 9,803$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.22 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…d0f6backed Yes | 25c | 3,319$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 46c | 3,214$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.63 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 2,168$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.63 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 56c | 2,139$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.7 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 1,800$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 61c | 1,747$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.68 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 58c | 1,054$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.64 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,023$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 28c | 800$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.94 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 47c | 712.51$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.66 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 54c | 695.98$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.93 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 37c | 689.99$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.75 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 44c | 669.35$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.33 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad66…084bbacked No | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…ba7abacked No | 51c | 528.19$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 67c | 525.8$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.25 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 420.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 50c | 407.97$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 399.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked No | 68c | 390.78$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 41c | 370.44$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.44 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 51c | 348.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed No | 62c | 348.03$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…c85bbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked No | 67c | 300.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 55c | 300.08$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…1888backed No | 68c | 290.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 38c | 262.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.94 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 61c | 249.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 42c | 238.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed No | 48c | 226.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 26c | 223.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked No | 54c | 222.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…d2b3backed No | 49c | 220.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 44c | 217.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…40c1backed Yes | 49c | 214.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 53c | 208.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…79a2backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 73c | 187$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 41c | 170$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 64c | 155.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 60c | 153.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 139.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 50c | 134.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…f594backed No | 40c | 125.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 51c | 119.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 58c | 116.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 64c | 112.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 67c | 111.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…79cebacked No | 51c | 102.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 53c | 101.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed No | 48c | 99.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…7346backed No | 41c | 95.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 43c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 53c | 75.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 56c | 71.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…b42bbacked No | 39c | 62.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…ac4fbacked Yes | 80c | 55.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 55c | 53.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…c6bebacked Yes | 34c | 49.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 63c | 45.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f1…06b9backed Yes | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed Yes | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…5e07backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 66c | 34.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +118%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…3975backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…edcebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 70c | 30.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…8530backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3780…e659backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…cc2abacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 58c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…c4eebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked No | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…029abacked Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…3f8abacked No | 68c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.