Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd854644bc73383a2737771b8c2b55aa43ac53c375b32ea7ff70fe17e8fc187da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 13c | 7,754$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.04 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 63c | 1,738$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.81 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,395$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 55c | 1,350$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 1,324$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,248$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,130$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 36c | 999.34$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.82 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 59c | 949.4$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.36 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 34c | 848.72$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 30c | 840.37$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 751.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.59 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 71c | 731$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.26 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 68c | 678.4$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.14 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 38c | 664.59$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.43 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a7c4backed No | 65c | 500.31$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.44 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 39c | 483.06$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 64c | 449.53$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.07 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 392.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…f2b9backed Yes | 12c | 377.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 68c | 340.5$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 14c | 332.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed Yes | 37c | 314.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 306.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…79a2backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 76c | 294.72$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 58c | 293.68$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 70c | 289.98$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 76c | 288.9$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 11c | 287.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 21c | 285$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 45c | 284.53$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cb9bbacked Yes | 31c | 236.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 59c | 230.69$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 76c | 230$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…e1c3backed Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 76c | 220.31$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…1888backed No | 78c | 215$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed No | 67c | 206.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed No | 56c | 205.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 20c | 194.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 67c | 189.05$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 30c | 186.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 55c | 181.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 26c | 181.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…40c1backed Yes | 38c | 174.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked Yes | 41c | 170$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…02b0backed No | 75c | 169.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…7817backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes | 58c | 156$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 64c | 155$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 12c | 147.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 135.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…bd32backed Yes | 59c | 122.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…413abacked No | 66c | 106.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 15c | 96.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked No | 78c | 95.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 68c | 91.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…7476backed No | 64c | 86.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 65c | 82.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 41c | 80.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…4deabacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…40c4backed No | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…f607backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…0ee9backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 36c | 50.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked No | 68c | 50.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…bddfbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 22c | 47.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…ad8bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…1533backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…7dbdbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…fb7ebacked Yes | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 48c | 32.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…111ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…80babacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed No | 69c | 27.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.