TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,230 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06ec…f845backed Yes13c7,754$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.0421935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No63c1,738$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.813171%22 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c1,395$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3633313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed Yes55c1,350$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-79.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c1,324$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,248$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.751,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes13c1,130$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.447244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes36c999.34$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.821421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No59c949.4$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.365250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes34c848.72$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes30c840.37$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes27c751.67$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No71c731$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.267556%42 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No68c678.4$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1415155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes38c664.59$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.439831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba0…a7c4backed No65c500.31$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.442962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes39c483.06$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.467638.2%29 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed No64c449.53$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.074969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4911936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c392.66$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6956733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef85…f2b9backed Yes12c377.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.55966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+54.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked No68c340.5$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.061855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes14c332.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4716544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54f0…8a13backed Yes37c314.65$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.011346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c306.65$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.751,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e7e…79a2backed No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4578…c54abacked No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No76c294.72$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.727672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No58c293.68$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6817452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No70c289.98$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.993548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No76c288.9$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.667167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes11c287.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.662944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes21c285$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.66431.3%20 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes45c284.53$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.183915.4%6 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8643…cb9bbacked Yes31c236.93$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No59c230.69$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7813943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb288…fa0fbacked No76c230$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.23363.6%21 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xea0d…e1c3backed Yes44c230$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No76c220.31$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.85955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab2…1888backed No78c215$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed No67c206.23$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.062657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed No56c205.14$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.493268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes20c194.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid+3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No67c189.05$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.94459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd069…e72ebacked Yes30c186.67$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No55c181.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9413673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes26c181.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.96423.4%15 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd03c…40c1backed Yes38c174.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc235…12cfbacked Yes41c170$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.981145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f78…02b0backed No75c169.29$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x419d…7817backed No69c160$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes58c156$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.481070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No64c155$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.87473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.57332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes12c147.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.725225%13 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.934673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c135.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8f…bd32backed Yes59c122.07$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.28355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x557a…413abacked No66c106.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.52666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4039522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes15c96.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.118441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked No78c95.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.051533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No62c95$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3815238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No68c91.32$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.326572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf74d…7476backed No64c86.66$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21070%7 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+105.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8403…5c98backed No64c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313974.4%29 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No65c82.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.685552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked Yes41c80.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.995438.9%21 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes32c78.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5990…4deabacked Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e85…40c4backed No65c61.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.54785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+48.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40c…f607backed No71c56.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a1…0ee9backed Yes38c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes36c50.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2712839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa596…7f4fbacked No68c50.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.341947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c9…bddfbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes22c47.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.548250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4970…ad8bbacked Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No41c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.66645.5%30 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+55.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x574c…1533backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x475b…7dbdbacked Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.259340.9%38 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3086…fb7ebacked Yes49c32.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes48c32.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.622035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef44…111ebacked Yes36c32.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…80babacked No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd478…4fa1backed No69c27.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781030%3 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick64cpaid-57.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.633847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No77c13.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.034358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.