Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x517d97c0e577d07f9ae2fd32e8d2b67a9dbfb9c9c13b64d60284fc002abb717f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed No | 20c | 12,745$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…a862backed No | 18c | 12,655$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 14c | 8,705$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 1c | 8,308$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e37…17cebacked No | 8c | 7,567$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked No | 17c | 6,779$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…0876backed No | 19c | 5,935$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…0054backed No | 1c | 4,477$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed No | 13c | 4,042$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 16c | 3,889$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed No | 19c | 3,174$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 19c | 3,173$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed No | 3c | 3,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7589…9081backed No | 4c | 2,803$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…547ebacked No | 14c | 2,093$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked No | 14c | 1,974$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 19c | 1,867$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.75 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 17c | 1,451$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.51 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 18c | 1,412$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.47 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…37b3backed No | 15c | 1,244$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…c486backed No | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 1c | 1,172$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 17c | 1,100$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…8a4dbacked No | 6c | 1,079$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 13c | 1,057$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 15c | 1,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 20c | 917.92$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 12c | 890.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 18c | 800$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 17c | 740.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…fc95backed No | 14c | 739.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4881…39e0backed No | 21c | 718.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…3f92backed No | 19c | 697.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 6c | 660$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 11c | 653.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…81abbacked No | 19c | 635$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…4ce5backed No | 17c | 568.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…4263backed No | 20c | 555$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 19c | 530$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 19c | 515.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 18c | 511.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 499.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…5b12backed No | 17c | 464$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…af2bbacked No | 17c | 460.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fc9fbacked No | 21c | 417.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…2d2cbacked No | 12c | 407.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…8b6cbacked No | 14c | 351.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…59f0backed No | 20c | 329.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 18c | 320$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…e90fbacked No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…6cf5backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…95adbacked No | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…c3eebacked No | 17c | 295.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…f594backed No | 17c | 292.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…bddfbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked No | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653a…bb03backed No | 15c | 219.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 217.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…39b1backed No | 24c | 208.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…243bbacked No | 18c | 206.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…2edebacked No | 13c | 203.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 194.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 16c | 187.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…0ee9backed No | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 19c | 174.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 15c | 167.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100d…496abacked No | 13c | 162.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…af8ebacked No | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…c901backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…59e0backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 17c | 148.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…21b0backed No | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f0…f19fbacked No | 20c | 132.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e44…8d50backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed No | 12c | 118.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…a584backed No | 18c | 114.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b2…1f44backed No | 19c | 113.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb764…ad75backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked No | 16c | 102.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…1567backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…115fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.