Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78676b50a3f3980915f3b45de9796a8a2f127bd229cf5abd352611225b854b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1710…3344backed No | 37c | 2,044$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 72c | 2,027$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.81 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…bf84backed Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 50c | 1,570$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.25 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 51c | 1,538$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.69 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 51c | 1,219$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.39 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 49c | 1,214$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.01 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 54c | 1,110$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.38 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 1,100$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.45 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.17 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 49c | 912.99$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 61c | 665.98$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.03 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 39c | 631.19$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.03 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 41c | 616.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 54c | 600$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 55c | 565.35$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.71 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed No | 45c | 446.55$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…cd47backed Yes | 71c | 445.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 370.74$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 56c | 361$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.21 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 46c | 352.15$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 38c | 300$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 56c | 287.35$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 53c | 284.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 52c | 279.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 44c | 250$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…4adcbacked Yes | 57c | 222.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 29c | 220.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…79ccbacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 54c | 211.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x665c…e3afbacked Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f23…27cbbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 37c | 192.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 46c | 191.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 52c | 190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 45c | 179.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 62c | 160.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 48c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 59c | 142.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 35c | 125.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 124$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…6b97backed Yes | 54c | 114.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 58c | 112.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 48c | 98.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 56c | 87.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 50c | 82.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 56c | 82.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…8c54backed Yes | 39c | 79.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…fd74backed Yes | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…0befbacked Yes | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 32c | 69.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…3802backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…bc26backed Yes | 49c | 63.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…2bb1backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06d…9bfebacked Yes | 68c | 59.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed No | 44c | 56.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…a852backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…c2b2backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 64c | 45.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b4…b435backed Yes | 56c | 44.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…29a7backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a8…a418backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…6962backed Yes | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 51c | 36.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…5ec4backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…4d50backed Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31c…0bd6backed Yes | 47c | 27.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.