Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e5a3779455c3812de539f04b9d444bb112ef6d5bb60fc5da5cdaeda75fc95c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c0…abafbacked No | 0c | 14,197$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 12c | 3,226$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.68 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 10c | 3,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 18c | 2,245$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.63 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 10c | 1,692$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.81 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed No | 9c | 1,605$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 1,451$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.55 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 1,401$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 16c | 761.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 15c | 640$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed No | 10c | 500.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 15c | 499.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 8c | 479.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed No | 11c | 462.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…72eebacked No | 11c | 460.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 13c | 444.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed No | 15c | 443.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 10c | 442.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 17c | 420.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 13c | 412.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 14c | 344.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 11c | 331.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 25c | 325.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 10c | 325.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 16c | 303.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 72c | 258.49$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 230.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…ed53backed No | 16c | 226.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 12c | 192.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 10c | 178$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…b33dbacked No | 10c | 176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 18c | 172$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 12c | 162.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…8895backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ee…96a0backed No | 13c | 151.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed No | 14c | 143.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4830…5b56backed No | 21c | 142.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 10c | 142.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…f594backed No | 11c | 140.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…ca40backed Yes | 78c | 128.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd807…0aecbacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 123.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…bd6ebacked No | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 10c | 100.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…699fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…14babacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…2bb1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…b9aebacked No | 14c | 85.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 80.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed No | 18c | 56.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 80c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 78c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.