TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,657 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed No35c3,414$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.543444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No33c2,877$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.0125528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No31c2,846$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.763537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1710…3344backed No33c2,528$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes66c2,500$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.784450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1383…bf84backed Yes67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes74c1,973$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.131833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes66c1,816$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.193743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes63c1,378$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.831338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes65c1,284$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.2714121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No30c816.42$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.314719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes69c758.7$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.934443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No29c693.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.438725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes66c671$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.013033.3%10 W · 20 L-6.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No30c658.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No33c658.43$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0811542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No34c572.39$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.092065%13 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No35c500$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1776665.2%43 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes62c499.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.411844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No27c489.98$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.46933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3944…f591backed Yes62c484.09$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf454…7bcbbacked No33c444.36$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.94475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+211.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeed6…510ebacked Yes73c410.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No37c400.09$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.672454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No31c400$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed No35c400$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.461952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes72c400$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.571330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No27c399.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes66c350.76$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6115451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No34c317.14$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.297733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.861346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x749f…a8f9backed Yes71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No39c256$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.843951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes64c250.08$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.131450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked No40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes69c240$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.811647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d33…209abacked Yes70c216.45$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.721050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No27c182.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a26…a80fbacked No56c181.29$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed No29c174.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed Yes72c170.38$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.57966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No19c164.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.095123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed No36c157$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.221258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked No32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes63c155$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.354524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes66c149.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.243237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x017d…1290backed Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No28c141.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes71c135.14$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.191233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe15d…9507backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes74c133.65$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb937…9d0dbacked No31c130.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd768…4f3cbacked Yes77c130.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No33c123.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.022634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e0e…938fbacked Yes71c112.68$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6711741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+43.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.311936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc894…b9f6backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30a5…d157backed Yes68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No33c98.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed Yes72c98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.443256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No33c92.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.67843.6%34 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…3e16backed Yes70c90.56$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28b…a852backed No33c89.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked No24c89.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.216622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No32c87.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.897525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…6ee3backed No30c86.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.844537.8%17 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes69c83.13$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70f8…ab37backed Yes68c81.65$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed No50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.84555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa772…b445backed Yes71c80$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes69c76.45$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9090…1ad3backed No36c76.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…ed53backed No29c75.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes61c75$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Yes60c74.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.881723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-55.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8134…8eaabacked Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be9…e080backed Yes68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd469…15a7backed No29c69.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No32c68.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.042236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c6…f536backed No32c63.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes71c62.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.852458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2063…1eedbacked Yes71c61.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.971145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0d…d3a5backed No29c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.