Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd71e9a77a8424e54266e6ac5a59f4a928415c49db45fd42d5dbc050a7a266755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 78c | 2,540$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.79 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 13c | 1,983$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.36 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 1,750$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.05 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 12c | 957.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 23c | 713.52$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 23c | 673.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.43 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 22c | 666$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 22c | 665.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed No | 80c | 630$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 75c | 600$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 21c | 600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 493$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 19c | 492.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 19c | 455$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 20c | 451.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 23c | 433.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 22c | 430.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 24c | 410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 23c | 399.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 77c | 383.09$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 369.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 77c | 322.14$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…4d50backed Yes | 29c | 245.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 77c | 244.96$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 77c | 204.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed No | 78c | 185.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7117…3a3ebacked No | 78c | 184.92$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 77c | 180.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 20c | 178$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 28c | 166.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 18c | 151.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 20c | 142$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 139$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 78c | 134$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 21c | 126.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 125.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 70c | 97.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 19c | 89.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…5ec4backed Yes | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…46acbacked No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…7898backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 21c | 63.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 40c | 62.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 23c | 48.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed No | 80c | 36.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a79…8e05backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…f594backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…3a47backed Yes | 79c | 24.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a74…b263backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.