Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb13293ae86f66c37bf1c4652637cb5ae3018ec280c709c3f470a6bf773de662f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 66c | 16,294$10,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,727.3 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…471fbacked No | 5c | 5,062$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 5c | 4,382$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 36c | 3,884$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.48 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 38c | 2,867$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…8086backed No | 76c | 2,761$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 23c | 2,582$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed Yes | 37c | 2,513$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 3c | 2,290$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 45c | 2,209$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 72c | 2,035$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…7c00backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…e177backed No | 11c | 1,936$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 73c | 1,873$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 1,787$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.72 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 54c | 1,762$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.57 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 46c | 1,502$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 4c | 1,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 42c | 1,475$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.91 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,247$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.08 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,150$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 44cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 64c | 1,111$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.03 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 32c | 1,110$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 47c | 1,065$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,040$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.99 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed No | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…209abacked Yes | 29c | 988.88$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 965.24$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 20c | 918.62$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 47c | 845$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes | 48c | 838.7$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 38c | 830$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c0…aa0cbacked No | 61c | 813.55$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 51c | 784.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.54 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 45c | 766$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.78 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 32c | 725.12$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.6 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…72eebacked No | 59c | 682.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 45c | 670$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 37c | 670$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.59 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 46c | 649.54$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.42 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 59c | 608.33$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 37c | 602.99$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…2afdbacked Yes | 40c | 600$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 78c | 580$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 48c | 568$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.72 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 59c | 554.21$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 37c | 543.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…a8f9backed Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 516.46$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.18 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 19c | 514.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…1e0ebacked Yes | 39c | 498.81$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 44c | 466.78$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.72 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 46c | 450$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 42c | 449.54$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 40c | 400$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Yes | 41c | 382.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…ed8fbacked Yes | 47c | 368.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…9d0dbacked No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 44c | 354.79$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…a852backed Yes | 43c | 342.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 17c | 331.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 57c | 300$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 41c | 295.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 57c | 287.82$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.33 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 22c | 281.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked No | 7c | 280$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 26c | 270.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 49c | 261.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 38c | 260.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 51c | 260.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 26c | 248$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d157backed Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 36c | 240$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 54c | 233.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 38c | 222$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 17c | 221.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 37c | 219.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 37c | 202.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 52c | 202$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 199.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed No | 64c | 194.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…cd51backed No | 63c | 190.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 37c | 175.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 63c | 168.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 56c | 166.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6da…59a5backed No | 10c | 165.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.