Us Politics · resolved market
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e304c9236a141335a12c113a68f278d29e7e628fc065ae0f765e59c0940191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 0c | 5,545$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 5c | 4,919$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.67 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 4,600$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.23 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 3c | 4,044$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 3,192$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.43 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 23c | 2,803$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.61 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 24c | 2,486$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 2,195$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 70c | 1,722$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.62 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,636$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.01 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 23c | 1,562$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90d…fa24backed Yes | 12c | 1,448$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 25c | 1,300$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.69 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…95adbacked Yes | 20c | 1,219$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 1,203$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 8c | 933.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 31c | 887.9$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.11 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 24c | 887.02$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 27c | 866.52$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.44 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 709.98$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…6f7ebacked Yes | 30c | 658.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 10c | 638.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 18c | 617.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 609.28$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 28c | 602.09$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 19c | 601.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 70c | 559.08$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.85 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 502.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…e038backed Yes | 17c | 430.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 66c | 418.65$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…2581backed Yes | 26c | 417.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…6e00backed Yes | 26c | 405.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 22c | 402.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 17c | 381.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 26c | 370$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…e170backed Yes | 20c | 355$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…fed8backed Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 19c | 340.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 79c | 332.17$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 31c | 318.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…e8f2backed Yes | 26c | 310.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…e818backed Yes | 16c | 303.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 19c | 299.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 9c | 284.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 33c | 280$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 75c | 266.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 25c | 251.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e03…675fbacked Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 79c | 232.38$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 69c | 231.66$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 16c | 231.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134b…8677backed Yes | 21c | 215.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…b820backed No | 79c | 201$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 190.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…8e98backed Yes | 13c | 187.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 78c | 173.86$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 20c | 160.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 23c | 142$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…8823backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 56c | 134.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 49c | 130.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes | 20c | 127$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 79c | 126.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 18c | 121.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…8b70backed Yes | 26c | 119.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 80c | 116$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked Yes | 28c | 115.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 80c | 107$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…e0babacked Yes | 19c | 106.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 31c | 100.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 99.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 26c | 99.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…c6d9backed Yes | 13c | 95.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…8b4bbacked Yes | 20c | 91.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 58c | 87.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2159…ab9abacked Yes | 25c | 79.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…509fbacked Yes | 23c | 79.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…a8e3backed Yes | 25c | 73.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b4…08fabacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803f…6bdabacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 27c | 61.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 34c | 59.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed No | 74c | 56.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…650fbacked No | 76c | 50.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…0e6ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ab…41d6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.