TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes0c5,545$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.616530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes5c4,919$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.676459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c4,600$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.2399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes3c4,044$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.453514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No78c3,192$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.4335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes23c2,803$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.6116544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes24c2,486$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c2,195$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No70c1,722$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.6217850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes19c1,636$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.019831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff5…9711backed Yes23c1,562$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb90d…fa24backed Yes12c1,448$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes25c1,300$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.6918725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3609…95adbacked Yes20c1,219$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.531020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes6c1,203$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.572810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,017$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes8c933.62$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0719435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes31c887.9$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.113132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd069…e72ebacked Yes24c887.02$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes27c866.52$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4410630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No79c709.98$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8816725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7289…6f7ebacked Yes30c658.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf830…3437backed Yes10c638.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.81040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes18c617.83$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0314940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No76c609.28$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0822347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Yes28c602.09$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1672835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes19c601.4$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No70c559.08$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c502.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.271,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5119…e038backed Yes17c430.43$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No66c418.65$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.648441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a1…2581backed Yes26c417.39$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9079…6e00backed Yes26c405.84$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+228.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes22c402.27$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.511538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes17c381.01$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8218746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes26c370$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x006a…e170backed Yes20c355$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa771…fed8backed Yes28c350$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes19c340.57$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7113943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No79c332.17$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.452944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes31c318.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…e8f2backed Yes26c310.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f49…e818backed Yes16c303.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes18c300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.510035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No71c299.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes19c299.16$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4810338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes9c284.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.622842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes33c280$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.837740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No75c266.93$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8913673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes25c251.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3723639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e03…675fbacked Yes33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No79c232.38$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.043435.3%12 W · 22 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No69c231.66$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.757332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Yes16c231.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+41.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x134b…8677backed Yes21c215.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…b820backed No79c201$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c190.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe960…8e98backed Yes13c187.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No78c173.86$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.124843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cd0…f582backed Yes20c160.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes29c150$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.512545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed Yes23c142$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.663360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes30c140$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54df…8823backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No56c134.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.08988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No49c130.86$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8511936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes20c127$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No79c126.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.493154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes18c121.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.952433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b5…8b70backed Yes26c119.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No80c116$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.767672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1d33…91adbacked Yes28c115.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked No80c107$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.42020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2463…e0babacked Yes19c106.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes31c100.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.143218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.04862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315028%14 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes13c99.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.136527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes26c99.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c9…c6d9backed Yes13c95.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x078e…8b4bbacked Yes20c91.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7120…e630backed Yes58c87.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5787…5a48backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d84…72dabacked No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2159…ab9abacked Yes25c79.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+87%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ee…509fbacked Yes23c79.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…a8e3backed Yes25c73.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b4…08fabacked Yes15c73.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x803f…6bdabacked Yes33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes27c61.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.375552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1de2…9e23backed Yes34c59.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x404e…a0d3backed No74c56.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.461376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+46.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f5b…650fbacked No76c50.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.573435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…0e6ebacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ab…41d6backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.