Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb7ed3aafcd80a2112eb687480c4a9bf042dc2d76663dd13785323c8be898bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,385,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,000,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,385,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 5c | 278,254$12,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,866.11 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 17c | 235,911$40,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,656.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 79c | 82,400$65,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,323.59 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 18c | 70,088$12,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,444.46 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 80c | 42,800$34,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,560 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 28c | 42,463$12,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,054.51 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 16c | 25,071$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920.62 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…7b7cbacked Yes | 23c | 18,200$4,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…3bc3backed Yes | 9c | 16,896$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 16,550$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.84 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cc…0b12backed Yes | 0c | 15,408$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2292…304ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,074$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 7c | 12,010$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.23 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 51c | 10,261$5,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,184.39 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 16c | 8,815$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.99 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 8,332$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.67 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 62c | 8,198$5,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133.34 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 8,095$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.14 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…80aabacked No | 77c | 6,500$4,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,455$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.38 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6f…6485backed No | 77c | 6,400$4,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfd…3255backed No | 77c | 5,300$4,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 19c | 5,186$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.69 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 4,400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.49 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…9d7cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,345$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 61c | 4,009$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.62 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…83d6backed Yes | 3c | 3,841$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 3,236$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6067…ee68backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked No | 78c | 2,961$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes | 10c | 2,889$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…ab80backed No | 71c | 2,865$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 72c | 2,776$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.74 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 23c | 2,689$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.5 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 38c | 2,300$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.4 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 39c | 2,228$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.51 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 79c | 2,219$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.59 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 1c | 2,201$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 21c | 1,999$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.8 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,949$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.94 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 10c | 1,948$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.38 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3c…2324backed Yes | 2c | 1,919$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 8c | 1,716$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 70c | 1,692$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.13 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…14b0backed Yes | 2c | 1,689$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 17c | 1,626$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,566$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 4c | 1,520$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,516$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.76 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2710…03cbbacked No | 75c | 1,489$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 1,457$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.08 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,445$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.29 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…50f0backed No | 61c | 1,361$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 7c | 1,358$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c7…c0c0backed Yes | 38c | 1,300$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 10c | 1,260$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 33c | 1,258$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed Yes | 24c | 1,200$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 23c | 1,154$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.39 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 29c | 1,002$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…0c2fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,001$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…3715backed Yes | 23c | 987.27$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 981.94$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9c5ebacked No | 63c | 966$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed Yes | 5c | 964.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 3c | 962.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 35c | 854.86$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.09 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 21c | 837.53$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…5985backed Yes | 21c | 829.63$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes | 7c | 826.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 22c | 807.27$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.57 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 2c | 805.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 802.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 63c | 788.36$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…ec8bbacked Yes | 17c | 778.48$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 43c | 738$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.51 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked No | 41c | 700$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 20c | 697.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.59 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked No | 75c | 588.59$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.56 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 32c | 578.46$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.74 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 26c | 571.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…5d85backed Yes | 4c | 563.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 12c | 558.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…2b59backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed No | 75c | 549.71$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 28c | 500$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 33c | 500$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.26 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…1cc2backed Yes | 23c | 500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed Yes | 18c | 486.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 21c | 472.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 29c | 472.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.