TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ee5…83d6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT2646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$541.67
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$443.4
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$586.96
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$719.11
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$461.54
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$541.67
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.1
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$466.27
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$466.27
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.6
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.6
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.43
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$426.73
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$486.5
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$419.25
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+482.5%+$193.01
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,263Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+51.7%+$653.06
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers (To Advance)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
NBA Playoffs: Lakers vs. Timberwolves (To Advance)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+154.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. Packersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+163.2%+$163.16
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+400%+$240
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+96.9%+$290.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+35.4%+$354.47
Trump + Biden debate on June 27 as planned?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+48.5%+$1,211.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+38.5%+$770.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+33.3%+$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,600
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hoffman vs. Warwickbacked Warwick · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.