TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$804,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$842,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $804,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb85…152fbacked Spurs50c210,179$105,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,178.699945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Trail Blazers52c141,809$73,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,704.766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Trail Blazers50c100,000$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00020545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Trail Blazers51c87,946$44,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,545.021,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Spurs49c86,118$42,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,612.6356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Spurs49c80,932$39,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,478.5237627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Trail Blazers52c72,841$37,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,787.2214842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs55c66,994$36,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,402.111,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc8…6ca6backed Spurs49c39,909$19,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,156.671776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Trail Blazers50c32,162$16,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,073.369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Trail Blazers52c31,412$16,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,334.0443148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs49c21,000$10,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,71010248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Spurs48c17,134$8,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,986.9435744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed Trail Blazers22c13,611$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008331.3%26 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c10…6482backed Trail Blazers50c12,639$6,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,359520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Trail Blazers51c11,366$5,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,842.565345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Spurs49c10,820$5,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,518.223047%108 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Trail Blazers53c10,200$5,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40617055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Trail Blazers52c10,041$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.6649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Spurs49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10017553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Spurs48c9,921$4,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,158.7317356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Trail Blazers52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Trail Blazers50c8,947$4,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,473.4159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Spurs50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.2410049%49 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Trail Blazers27c7,536$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.5410645.3%48 W · 58 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers51c6,151$3,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,115.644,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Trail Blazers51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers51c5,883$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.331,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Spurs48c5,625$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,92518349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe7…68f3backed Spurs65c5,508$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.82853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Trail Blazers51c5,500$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8051,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x301e…3f91backed Trail Blazers36c5,279$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs75c4,641$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Spurs48c4,244$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,206.7530446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs49c3,896$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.724,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Trail Blazers52c2,885$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50017247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Trail Blazers51c2,857$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.9414940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Trail Blazers50c2,475$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.861,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Trail Blazers51c2,438$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.521943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Trail Blazers51c2,408$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.061,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Trail Blazers50c2,372$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.6516946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Trail Blazers51c2,303$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.5364651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Spurs49c2,291$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.6115246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Trail Blazers51c2,258$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.5756843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs80c2,215$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.033,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers50c2,180$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0902,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Trail Blazers51c2,089$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.8665045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Trail Blazers52c2,089$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.3582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Spurs50c2,083$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.5462051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Spurs48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3314251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Spurs49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.917852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Trail Blazers51c2,005$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.5537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23ef…1d4cbacked Trail Blazers51c2,005$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.575337.7%20 W · 33 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Trail Blazers51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Spurs48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04022055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Spurs48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9857950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Trail Blazers49c1,853$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90021152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Trail Blazers51c1,826$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.538946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Trail Blazers50c1,729$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.482,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Spurs49c1,639$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.7822036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f3…0d2cbacked Spurs51c1,569$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.637054.3%38 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed Trail Blazers50c1,542$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7717143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs53c1,458$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.3473649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Trail Blazers50c1,452$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7261,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Trail Blazers36c1,394$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Trail Blazers25c1,175$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2628842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Spurs49c1,120$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.244740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Trail Blazers17c1,118$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19052230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ee5…83d6backed Spurs48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.672646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Spurs48c1,030$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.5925550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Spurs49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.418242.7%35 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Trail Blazers18c1,010$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.83154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Spurs48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52028056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0435…cf1dbacked Trail Blazers20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016947.3%80 W · 89 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Spurs47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53011757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Spurs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50012450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Trail Blazers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3af…3f9cbacked Spurs50c982$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4912955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Trail Blazers51c969.63$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.1315650.6%79 W · 77 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…e77abacked Spurs48c868$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.363053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Trail Blazers49c858.97$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.966352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Trail Blazers51c821.03$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.7392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Trail Blazers33c782.48$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2268838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Spurs57c779.07$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.077545.3%34 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Spurs49c776$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.7616642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Spurs49c765.31$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.3125945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Spurs66c726.4$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.3134852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0b…bfc2backed Spurs49c714.29$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.294946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd4…9cf7backed Spurs62c680$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.45846.6%27 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d35…96afbacked Trail Blazers52c677.67$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14fe…e0fdbacked Trail Blazers52c673.08$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Trail Blazers51c666.66$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34022948.5%111 W · 118 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Spurs49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.242958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Trail Blazers50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023251.7%120 W · 112 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Spurs50c590$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29550954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa663…eceabacked Trail Blazers52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Trail Blazers52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008744.8%39 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5b0…f655backed Trail Blazers18c564.48$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.611741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Trail Blazers51c549.33$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Trail Blazers51c544$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9634850.9%177 W · 171 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.