NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489f984570c6e8558d09809b0fab46a0885a65d134d416c4acfae7f1fdaa4de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 9,881$5,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,138.31 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Spurs | 48c | 8,415$4,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,375.8 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Spurs | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Spurs | 48c | 927.56$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.33 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…96afbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 648.15$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…e0fdbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 646.49$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 619.2$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.22 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…fc19backed Spurs | 48c | 504.17$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 503.36$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.68 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Spurs | 50c | 359.36$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.36 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Spurs | 52c | 296.15$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Spurs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Spurs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Spurs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 167.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Spurs | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Spurs | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Spurs | 45c | 89.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Spurs | 48c | 87.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Spurs | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Spurs | 48c | 31.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Spurs | 46c | 28.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Trail Blazers | 62c | 25.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Spurs won
- Trail Blazers vs. SpursSpurs won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.