TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,519,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,515,601

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,519,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 564 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Thunder47c598,821$281,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317,375.3487451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns53c498,826$264,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264,361.5487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Suns52c197,824$102,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,868.355154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Suns50c91,141$45,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,165.021936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder46c64,086$29,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,606.364,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder48c60,571$29,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,506.8663746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Thunder50c59,297$29,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,791.271,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Suns53c50,000$26,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,499.9760351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Suns54c45,019$24,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,31036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Suns48c42,129$20,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,085.5193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder48c40,368$19,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,991.661,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Thunder48c30,320$14,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,789.1532351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Suns53c30,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,90020545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Thunder46c23,999$11,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,959.74744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder46c22,654$10,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,205.243,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Thunder48c20,386$9,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,570.761,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked Thunder47c20,230$9,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,721.786152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Thunder48c19,643$9,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,214.7120946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Suns54c18,724$10,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,020.9617055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder57c18,432$10,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,987.311,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Thunder69c17,407$11,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,414.810239.2%40 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Suns54c16,857$9,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,092.8464948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Suns70c16,108$11,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,226.926459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Suns53c14,000$7,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,42074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Suns53c12,000$6,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,36015952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Suns43c11,629$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,995.9955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder55c10,950$6,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,910.292,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x840d…3708backed Suns6c10,579$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.291553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed Thunder51c9,857$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,829.7711558.3%67 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Thunder48c9,688$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,037.762941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Suns38c9,305$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.032,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Thunder50c9,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50010949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Suns53c8,746$4,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,635.496045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder47c8,583$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,526.4769848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Thunder50c8,246$4,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,084.4111864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Suns53c7,094$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.893545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf721…ecf5backed Suns53c6,603$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.451637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder55c6,465$3,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,884.031,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Suns50c6,305$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.55050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Suns55c5,132$2,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.5642348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Suns30c5,023$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.2889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Thunder48c4,978$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.6714854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Thunder48c4,921$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.7937627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Suns17c4,557$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.6918835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder47c4,552$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.914,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Suns52c4,465$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.041,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Thunder48c4,444$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.7134255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Suns65c4,288$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,791.463531.4%11 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Suns52c3,925$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.1272241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Thunder58c3,876$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.091,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Suns53c3,667$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.69531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Thunder47c3,275$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.7132846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Suns50c3,223$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.533,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Thunder47c3,090$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.75561.8%34 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Thunder47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59013148.1%63 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Thunder47c2,998$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.198445.2%38 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Suns51c2,988$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.1582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Suns54c2,917$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.2957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Suns54c2,701$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.611654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns52c2,627$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.992,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed Thunder39c2,614$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.753933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder48c2,597$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.578,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf3…4918backed Suns53c2,587$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x189a…4765backed Suns53c2,587$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns53c2,456$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.074,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Suns57c2,386$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.0320352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Suns54c2,382$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.497156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Thunder48c2,366$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.3216946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ed…c146backed Suns54c2,161$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.883228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Thunder48c2,016$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.483941%16 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Suns53c2,004$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.951,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Suns53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns53c1,925$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.322,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Suns53c1,834$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.869049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Thunder48c1,747$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.6959250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Suns59c1,700$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.145552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Suns64c1,693$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.157452.7%39 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Suns53c1,681$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.043948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Thunder61c1,601$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.5243269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Suns52c1,566$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.391,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Thunder47c1,555$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.3317249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Thunder54c1,520$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.1122036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Suns54c1,459$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.645945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Suns53c1,451$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.1566352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Thunder44c1,450$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.3661638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b62…728abacked Suns52c1,443$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.3511556.5%65 W · 50 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Thunder59c1,420$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.597353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5303…83e6backed Suns53c1,366$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.996647%31 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Suns54c1,309$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.9321957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder52c1,307$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.321,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Suns43c1,291$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55512652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Thunder37c1,273$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.845158.8%30 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Thunder60c1,255$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.2315246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a3…1c90backed Thunder69c1,200$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3721145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73f3…0d2cbacked Suns53c1,192$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.677054.3%38 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Suns53c1,160$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.362051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Thunder54c1,153$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.2617052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Thunder50c1,106$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.1722836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5af…2b6dbacked Suns1c1,030$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Thunder47c1,030$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.959140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.