TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Suns: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,814 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7002…395cbacked Thunder70c933.36$656 inWon+$277.273250%16 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Suns52c671.66$349 inLost-$349.261,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns31c619.92$192 inLost-$192.172,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Suns26c363.94$95 inLost-$94.8220353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce42…5cddbacked Thunder58c350$203 inWon+$1473348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder48c252.88$121 inWon+$131.576653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Suns17c206.07$35 inLost-$34.9122836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Thunder70c199.98$140 inWon+$59.9910146.5%47 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+217.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1160…e3f7backed Suns36c169.32$61 inLost-$60.961457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+204.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Suns33c151.43$50 inLost-$49.9729243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Thunder63c133.55$84 inWon+$49.0761638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Thunder58c124.96$73 inWon+$52.2313744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Thunder66c104.53$69 inWon+$35.3787049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf481…7911backed Suns34c101.7$35 inLost-$34.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e6…757abacked Thunder68c101.56$69 inWon+$32.58148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Suns28c100$28 inLost-$2833860.9%206 W · 132 L+23.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Suns32c99.99$32 inLost-$3241050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd071…b4dabacked Thunder49c79.54$39 inWon+$40.439146.2%42 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5751…ffdfbacked Suns14c78.56$11 inLost-$10.691010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6a…de36backed Suns41c63.19$26 inLost-$25.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Suns37c59.28$22 inLost-$22.1332654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91b7…ad02backed Suns33c57.6$19 inLost-$19.25547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e9…dc76backed Suns24c50$12 inLost-$122334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d6…7999backed Suns34c49.8$17 inLost-$16.952152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe127…82a2backed Thunder73c40.65$30 inWon+$10.972965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3775…3debbacked Suns39c37.29$14 inLost-$14.452339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+63.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d822backed Suns42c34.47$14 inLost-$14.489448.9%46 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…3ebfbacked Suns45c30$14 inLost-$13.53036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder80c29.64$24 inWon+$5.931,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Suns60c29.29$17 inLost-$17.533159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x941e…c622backed Thunder68c28.85$20 inWon+$9.237960.8%48 W · 31 L+9.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+42.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Suns50c28.36$14 inLost-$14.1821046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b4…c865backed Thunder62c18.91$12 inWon+$7.191855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee6…f017backed Thunder68c16.7$11 inWon+$5.344774.5%35 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+59.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe177…cfcfbacked Suns71c16.61$12 inLost-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.