NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20dadf97d523032f6f30d9acb94767628d795b05f423975acd7b957d32e0ad56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Thunder | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Suns | 50c | 2,386$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.1 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Suns | 50c | 1,335$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.6 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Suns | 53c | 1,019$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.28 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…5faabacked Suns | 54c | 541.09$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.7 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Thunder | 54c | 508.01$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.96 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Suns | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Suns | 45c | 499.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.82 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Thunder | 50c | 491.31$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.87 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Thunder | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Thunder | 47c | 367.61$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.83 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Thunder | 49c | 297.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Suns | 50c | 295.85$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…5a74backed Suns | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Suns | 47c | 275.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder | 46c | 249.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Suns | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thunder | 52c | 193.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Thunder | 47c | 191.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Suns | 50c | 174.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder | 34c | 113$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Thunder | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Suns | 54c | 89.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…d3d9backed Thunder | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder | 46c | 53.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Thunder | 46c | 48.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Suns | 50c | 48.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Suns | 54c | 46.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…7bfebacked Thunder | 47c | 43.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +92%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Thunder | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Suns | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Suns | 61c | 33.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Suns | 65c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Suns | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Suns | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Thunder | 56c | 29.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Suns | 53c | 19.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. SunsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.