TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4ee6…f017

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
120
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 68 out of 100 (+0.16 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 68 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT5442.6%23 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)backed Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.93
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)backed Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.25
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)backed Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.61
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)backed Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.42
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)backed Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.89
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.89
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)backed Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$23.51
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)backed Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$25.98
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)backed Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$230.28
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)backed Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.21
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$10.55
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.55
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)backed Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$11.9
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.56
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.03
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.43
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$14.49
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.38
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)backed Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$13.39
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$10.98
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT4774.5%35 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+59.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
NBA — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+355.2%+$41.96
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$11.59
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$5.52
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$44.71
Thunder vs. Suns: 1H Moneylinebacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$5.34
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+100%+$14.49
Spread: Thunder (-19.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$8.95
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.38
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.49
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.13
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$13.39
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$13.93
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$13.93
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$13.93
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.88
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.43
Spread: Celtics (-13.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$16.3
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$16.3
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$14.63
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.72
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$53.24
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.88
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)backed Newcastle United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.