MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a00969414788dcc127d0fcf6ccf640fa4d2482bb03c6d2d2585b3dcc38f4ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 46c | 9,389$4,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,069.95 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 3,915$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 2,661$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.51 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 54c | 1,395$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.14 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…82bbbacked Over | 45c | 1,298$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 1,146$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.43 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 987.2$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.96 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 716.07$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 653.23$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.11 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 47c | 540.44$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.43 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 45c | 538.14$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.98 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 510.5$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 450.19$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 54c | 443$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.32 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 316.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 310.83$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 31c | 292.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 252.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 238.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Over | 47c | 205.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 72c | 179.62$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 171.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 146.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 140.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 51c | 140.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 45c | 137.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 46c | 136.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 105.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked Under | 22c | 87.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 43c | 87.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 49c | 85.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 50c | 81.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 50c | 81.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 50c | 81.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 50c | 81.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 81.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 71.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 52c | 65.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 54c | 58.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 49c | 57.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 45c | 53.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 51c | 48.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 54c | 40.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 48c | 37.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 55c | 26.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 47c | 26.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Under | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 56c | 23.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 59c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 51c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 76c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.